Rankings: Top 25 For GOP 2012

Published Dec 31 2008, 10:40 AM by David S. Bernstein

The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary are barely three years away, so for your year-end enjoyment I am going to give you my rankings of the Top 25 Most Likely 2012 Republican Presidential Nominees.

Mind you, there are big question marks clouding the crystal ball. Most importantly, we simply don't know how good or bad the country and the Obama Presidency will look in a couple of years.

If the status quo is looking peachy keen, then you can expect some of the Bobby Jindals and Charlie Crists to wait for '16. Also, in that scenario the Republican contest would likely be a lower-participation affair, boding well for solid conservatives, and boding ill for moderates who need to count on independents and moderate Republicans voting in the GOP primaries (as John McCain did).

There are plenty of other unknowns, but that's never stopped me before. So, here are the candidates I believe are most likely to be the GOP nominee for President in 2012, ranked in order of likelihood. With very brief comments. Keep your eye out for them in New Hampshire, any day now.

1) Mark Sanford, Governor of South Carolina. The sane conservative choice.

2) Mike Pence, US Representative from Indiana. The insane conservative choice.

3) Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota. No strikes against him. Slogan: "If McCain had picked me, who knows?"

4) Rick Perry, Governor of Texas. If he thinks he can win re-election in 2010, he'll do it and then run for President. If he thinks Hutchison will beat him (see #9 below), he won't run for re-election, and then run for President.

5) Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts. He has to be on the list because it's possible that nobody else with access to serious funding will run. In the meantime, will he run for governor or senator of one of his various home states (which now includes California)?

6) Jim DeMint, US Senator from South Carolina. Sure acts like he wants it more than anybody else.

7) John Thune, US Senator from South Dakota. It's a shame that Daschle isn't going for the rematch in 2010. That would be a great race.

8) Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana. Says he's not going to run in 2012. They're so cute the first time they say that!

9) Kay Bailey Hutchison. Assuming she becomes governor of Texas (see #4 above) she'd be in great position for it. Slogan: "A Republican woman who knows stuff."

10) Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana. A rarity: a Republican who has recently won an election.

11) Bill Frist, former Senator from Tennessee. Consider yourself warned: the doctor is planning a comeback.

12) Jon Huntsman Jr., Governor of Utah. Mormon, but less creepy than Mitt. Would be higher on this list, but I assume that Romney will torpedo him as revenge for endorsing McCain.

13) Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House from Georgia. Running for President is a great way to meet chicks.

14) Haley Barbour, Governor of Mississippi. A real rarity: a competent Republican.

15) Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska. Would be lower on this list, but how do I know it isn't God's will?

16) Charlie Crist, Governor of Florida. He got married to a woman earlier this month, which is supposed to put the gay rumors behind him. Good luck with that.

17) Eric Cantor, US Representative from Virginia. He's Mr. Ambition. And conservative Christians don't think Jews are as weird as Mormons.

18) Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas. Have you noticed that he's been putting the weight back on? Remember when everyone was watching Al Gore's waistline for signs that he was getting in shape to run last year?

19) John Ensign, US Senator from Nevada. As chair of the Republican Senate Campaign Committee, he cleverly cleared away much of the field of prominent Republicans.

20) Tom Ridge, former Secretary of Homeland Security. Great candidate, but his pro-choice position makes him unfeasible -- unless he can concoct a better magical sanctity-of-life conversion story than Romney did. Possible campaign slogan: "I left Homeland Security WAAAYY before Katrina!"

21) Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida. Perhaps the next US Senator from Florida. Still, 2012 might be too soon for rehabbing the family name.

22) Gen. David Petraeus, CENTCOM Commander. An awful lot of conservatives seem to think this is a serious possibility, and I guess it makes at least as much sense as Wesley Clark did.

23) Lindsay Graham, Senator from South Carolina. Third most likely South Carolinian.

24) Don Carcieri, Governor of Rhode Island. Sure, nobody knows him. That's his upside.

25) Unknown business tycoon. I'm sorry to wimp out like that, but I think there's a legitimate chance that the nominee will be some extremely successful but relatively little-known executive -- a center-conservative version of Virginia's Mark Warner, or a Christian version of Michael Bloomberg -- who has never run for public office before. And I have no idea who it might be.

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22 Comments

Whatever said:

David you're obviously out of touch to put Sarah Palin so low. You must not have seen the Republican Party polls where she's at the top of the list and your picks above her aren't even near her... they're in the single digits. And there's a bunch of Sarah Palin grassroots organizations online and offline. David get a clue... you have no clue what you're talking about.

December 31, 2008 1:51 PM
Dan said:

Mitt Romney and Marc Sanford are rightly near the top because they are the best two candidates for sure. Perry, Pence, and Pawlenty all have no chance. Pawlenty's only chance is if Palin AND Huckabee don't run.

December 31, 2008 7:17 PM
lisa said:

Who cares. None of them will win. The Republicans should just run John McCain again so they don't have to deal with a young party hopeful being smushed.

December 31, 2008 7:34 PM
MK in Arizona said:

Mitt Romney should be number 1! He is obviously the smartest of the bunch and if not for Huckabee Mitt would have been the Republican nominee in 2008. He may not have been able to beat Obama this last time but once the country has had four years of his liberal policies they will be crying out for Romney and his economic sense.

Romney/Jindal in 2012

December 31, 2008 9:09 PM
DOUG said:

EVERYONE OF THESE GOP CANDIATES ARE LIKE BUSH. AMERICANS VOTED FOR CHANGE THEY WILL NEVER LOOK BACK.

January 1, 2009 12:42 AM
Jed said:

Romney/Jindal for 2012!!!

Intelligence and diversity!

We want social AND economic conservatism!

January 1, 2009 4:30 AM
DC said:

I'm glad to see that Palin and Huckabee are so far down on the list. I think Obama would clean their clocks in a general election. If Obama is successful, I think any of these candidates will have a difficult time taking him on in 2012. Romney probably has the best chance given his business expertise, strong leadership expereince, and support in swing states like Colorado, Nevada, and Michigan.

January 1, 2009 12:41 PM
James said:

All I have to say is, it's early but.....

Romney/Jindal for 2012!!!!

January 2, 2009 12:27 AM
Dan Kennedy said:

What was it that proved Mark Sanford's sanity for you, David? Was it when he finally agreed with the S.C. legislature — even the Republicans — that he should ask the federal government to replenish the state's depleted unemployment fund? Or was it when one of the two piglets he brought on a visit to the House chamber promptly took a dump on the carpet?

//tinyurl.com/8jqgjo

I will confess that I didn't know a thing about him until yesterday, but I'm not impressed.

January 2, 2009 1:02 PM
Brett said:

The clear winner didn't even make your list. Ron Paul will run for president, and we will not let the media ignore him this time.

January 3, 2009 1:06 PM
Janice Maston said:

Are you kidding me. The man who is willing to turn down federal funds for the unemployed is about to become our next President. Sorry, that would never happen.

January 3, 2009 4:13 PM
max said:

i think john chambers or meg whitman would fill that final spot.

if whitman becomes gov. of california, watch how fast she flies up these lists.

January 9, 2009 11:51 PM
Evan from Maine said:

Mitt Romney in 2012!

January 18, 2009 10:23 PM
Mark in Ohio said:

John Boehner. He can stick it to the Dems like no other!

February 17, 2009 10:20 PM
Isaac Grove said:

Someone who's a true fiscal conservative, and someone who is for heaven's sakes a social liberal. I can't tolerate the Neocons and fundamentalists like the ones who believe in the "sanctity" of marriage, and the "privelege" of life. We aren't a Theocracy. We're a Republic. Which means that one's rights are defended by the law and the law rules over the people and the government. Get the "majortiy rules" and democracy idea out of your heads. Less government means less government. It means that government can't tell you who you can and cannot marry, and it can't tell you whether you can or can't have an abortion. Pro-capitalism, pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-Amtrak, pro-gun, pro-separation of church-state, anti-corporatocracy... those are a few characteristics I would like to see in a candidate.

February 20, 2009 9:13 PM
reaganw said:

Huckabee/Palin 2012!

July 4, 2009 9:15 PM
charles said:

Well I'm taking your changing your number one no doubt. Well although I think Mitt Romney was a great governor and I like his healthcare plan. I don't want him simple, because he raised taxes as governor and he flip flops on certain issues. Palin I think she's down for 2012 maybe 2020, but yet I don't think she'll run for anything ever again. Why? Because do you realize how much money she could make as a private citizen. She has large family if she writes a couple of books her family is set for life. I'm positive Huckabee will run so maybe Palin will take his show on Fox. I like Jindal,Hutchinson, and Gingrich, but I won't vote for them in the primaries unless they support a Fair Tax. Ron Paul I like almost every idea he has, but he'll be way to old to run and he's a little nuts. So I'm actually leaning more towards Gary Johnson former Governor of New Mexico. He's run his own business before, great governor, and he's got kind of a style that Ron Paul didn't have. So overall I think we need a women on the 2012 ticket. I'm definatly going republican in 2012 and I'll be willing to vote for Huckabee,Paul,Perry,Johnson, and maybe Rudy in 2012.

July 7, 2009 12:31 PM

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Rankings: Top 25 For GOP 2012

22 Comments

Whatever said:

Dan said:

lisa said:

MK in Arizona said:

DOUG said:

Jed said:

DC said:

James said:

Dan Kennedy said:

Brett said:

Janice Maston said:

max said:

Evan from Maine said:

Mark in Ohio said:

Isaac Grove said:

reaganw said:

charles said:

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