November 2007 - Posts - Stark Ravings

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November 30, 2007

The "Second-Choice" Issue for Iowa Dems
By webteam
Some analysis of the "second-choice" issue confronting Iowa Democrats at their caucus in January.

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Democrats

November 30, 2007

Rasmussen Now Gives Romney A 19-Point Lead in NH
By webteam
Mitt Romney may be in trouble in Iowa but the word hasn't gotten to NH yet. Rasmussen has Romney with a 19-point lead over John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, 34%-15%, with Mike Huckabee right behind.
The question is whether the lead will hold -- and it is a huge one -- if Romney loses Iowa five days before NH. And, even if he were to win NH after losing Iowa, would the press then write off his victory in the Granite State as a kind of favorite son showing?

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Republicans, Romney

November 30, 2007

Krugman vs. Obama
By webteam
Paul Krugman goes after Barack Obama: The Tote Board's take.

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Democrats, Obama

November 29, 2007

The Press Reacts to Last Night's CNN GOP Debate: Huckabee the Winner
By webteam
The press reaction to last night's debate generally conforms to what we said last night with one exception: While they give it to Huckabee, many found Giuliani to have an off night.
Still, what counts is what went over in Iowa and David Yepsen in the Des Moines Register thought Huckabee did well. The Mittster is in trouble which, over time, is good news for both Giuliani and McCain, who need Romney to fade in Iowa so they can potentially move up in New Hampshire.

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Huckabee, Republicans

November 29, 2007

Instant Brief Analysis Following CNN Debate -- Giuliani and Huckabee Stand Out
By webteam
A good night for Giuliani and Huckabee, but not for Romney, who seemed tired and hesitant virtually every time he was challenged. One debate does not a campaign make but if tonight is indicative, the race is going to come down to Rudy and Mike. Maybe it was just this one observer's impresson -- and it was just one event -- but the rest of the field beyond those two seemed to be candidates for a cabinet office, not the presidency.

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Republicans

November 29, 2007

Tote Board Column -- 11/29 -- "Take It For Granite"
By webteam
This week's column looks at why Hillary Clinton remains the strong favorite to do well in January and progress to the nomination.

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Clinton, Democrats, Edwards

November 28, 2007

Rasmussen Iowa Poll Now Has Huckabee Ahead of Romney
By webteam
The latest Rasmussen poll now has Mike Huckabee ahead of Mitt Romney in Iowa 28%-25%. It's a stunning turnaround and if it holds -- a big "if" -- Mitt's campaign will virtually end the night of the Iowa caucuses.

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Huckabee, Republicans, Romney

November 28, 2007

Preview of Tonight's CNN/YouTube Republican Debate
By webteam
The Tote Board's preview of tonight's GOP debate.

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Republicans

November 27, 2007

Poll Indicates Obama Has a Real Problem with Working Class Voters
By webteam
Last week, Graniteprof, a terrific website, had an interesting item on the latest Globe poll in New Hampshire. What he highlighted from the poll is that among voters with a high school education or less, Obama trails Clinton in New Hampshire by an astounding 6-1 margin, and actually runs fourth in New Hampshire behind Bill Richardson and John Edwards among these voters.

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Democrats, Obama

November 26, 2007

Oprah to Hit Campaign Trail Next Week for Obama
By webteam
Oprah is hitting the campaign trail next week for Obama, which could be a huge asset. As we wrote in a previous Tote Board column, it's not simply that Oprah is a huge pop culture celebrity. It's that her constituency is roughly the same as Hillary's -- lower-to-middle class women -- so she has the potential to help Obama with a key group.

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Democrats, Obama

November 22, 2007

The Tote Board's Thanksgiving Radio Analysis of the Race
By webteam
A quick radio analysis of the state of the race.

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November 21, 2007

Michigan Primary Back On for Jan. 15: It Could Help Romney or Giuliani and It Definitely Hurts Thompson
By webteam
Michigan's on-again, off-again GOP primary (thanks to court decisions) is back on for January 15th, placing it third in the process -- a week after New Hampshire and before South Carolina.
The beneficiary obviously depends on who comes out of the two contests before (Iowa and New Hampshire) but it's obviously not a bad state for either Mitt Romney (family connections) or Rudy Giuliani (geography).

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Republicans

November 21, 2007

New ABC/Washington Post Iowa GOP Poll Has Romney and Huckabee Close
By webteam
The latest Iowa poll, this one courtesy of the Washington Post/ABC:

Romney 28%
Huckabee 24%
Thompson 15%
Giuliani 13%

The real news, other than the closeness of the race in this poll, is the poor showing by Giuliani. Should he finish fourth in Iowa, it's a boost to McCain five days later in New Hampshire.

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Republicans

November 20, 2007

Tote Board Column --11/20 -- "He Ain't Heavy"
By webteam

This week's Tote Board column wonders why none of the other candidates has spoken out forcefully to defend Mitt Romney against religious prejudice.

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Democrats, Republicans, Romney

November 19, 2007

A Poll Sure to Shake Up the Psychology of the Race If Nothing Else: ABC/Washington Post Poll Has Obama Ahead in Iowa
By webteam

A new ABC/Washington Post poll has Obama ahead for the first time in Iowa since a Newsweek poll showed him with a similar lead in September.
The results for the top three:

Obama 30%
Clinton 26%
`` Edwards 22%

The main import of the poll -- besides giving a psychological boost to the Obama campaign -- is to deliver a blow to Edwards.

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Clinton, Democrats, Edwards

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