Q&A #6: Guv '14

Via email, "Noah" asks:

Is Steve Grossman the "presumptive nominee" now that Coakley looks like she's out and Murray is out? Who else could get in on the Democratic side? And the Republican side: Does Scott Brown go for it? Does Charlie Baker? Richard Tisei?

Grossman is strong, probably the "presumptive frontrunner," but not strong enough to be "presumptive nominee" in the sense that, say, Tom Reilly was at this stage of the 2006 cycle. (whoops)

But certainly in the current field of Grossman, Berwick, Avellone, and perhaps Dan Wolf, Grossman is the clear frontrunner of the Nebbishy Middle-Aged White Businessmen Primary. 

And he'll remain in strong initial shape if you add one or more of Capuano, Curtatone, Driscoll, Flanagan, Lang, etc. who might be scoping out a run.

The big question is Coakley. I realize she's done everything but fly a "Honestly I Swear I'm Not Running For Governor" banner over Foxboro on game day, but can she really sit out as it becomes more and more apparent that the nomination is hers for the taking? We'll see.

As for the Republicans, I have no idea what Brown has decided to do, but it seems to me the governor's race makes far more sense -- he has to win one campaign instead of two back-to-back, and can run with far less drag from the national GOP brand.

Which is why I wrote the other day that we may be headed for the rematch nobody wants.

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