We're within the 10-day forecasting window, and weather.com predicts that December 8th -- primary day for the Massachusetts special US Senate election -- will be partly cloudy with a high of 45 degrees. That would be good for turnout, if it holds. The forecast does call for rain the following day, however, so if that sneaks up 24 hours that would be bad for turnout.
I tend to be skeptical of Rasmussen polls, but here goes... of likely Dem primary voters:
Not sure 10%
OK, for starters, what "other"? But moving on....
For those who read my most recent column and are wondering if Coakley is Niki Tsongas redux -- never gaining a new voter from announcement to primary day -- well it sure looks like it, huh? Consider that when Rasmussen polled in early September, before the field had really taken shape, they had Coakley at the exact same 38% (with Lynch, Capuano, Tierney, and Markey all scattered far behind).
In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- a day early because of Thanksgiving! -- I write about the final one-week sprint to the Democratic Senate primary, after Bay Staters return from the long Thanksgiving weekend.
I also ponder the similarities -- and differences -- between this race and the special election two years ago that put Niki Tsongas into office (but only just barely).
I recently wrote in the Boston Phoenix about how national news events, outside the candidates' control, can have an impact on the special election race for US Senate here in Massachusetts. It will be interesting to see how that plays out next week, when President Barack Obama drops a (metaphorical) bomb during the final week of the primary campaign.
Charlie Baker announced via Twitter this morning that he is indeed selecting state senate minority leader Richard Tisei as his running mate. (Why now? So Tisei can raise money in two calendar years.)
I think this pretty much makes this the most socially moderate Republican ticket in the history of ever. We're well past the classic "Rockefeller Republicans" here.
Give the Globe some credit -- after getting some guff about their selectiveness in their last UNH poll on the mayor's race, they seem to have done a much better job with their new poll on the US Senate race, which is in today's paper and online.
We still don't know who's really going to show up for a special election primary in December, but there's nothing the Globe can do about that unknown.
Is this the most casual self-outing by a gay Republican in the history of politics or what?
It will be interesting to see how the GOP base in the state reacts. If Charlie Baker does pick Tisei as his LG, it's possible that someone could run against him on an anti-gay platform -- and potentially beat Tisei in the GOP primary. That would be a disaster for Baker, and the state party generally.
Hey, here's some news to crack a few smiles in the governor's office: the Massachusetts unemployment rate dropped from 9.3% to 8.7% in October -- the first monthly decline in 28 months.
Total net job losses for the month were under 1000. Construction jobs eked positive for the first time since February -- perhaps a sign of federal stimulus money at work.
In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I write about some of the ways the Democratic candidates for US Senate are trying to get attention and position.
I start with a look at how Congressman Michael Capuano is trying to use prominent female endorsers to signal to women that they needn't feel obligated to vote for Attorney General Martha Coakley.
The state legislature calls it quits for the year today, and here are the recent developments, according to reports from the State House News Service:
--Speaker Bob DeLeo is indicating that he will not try to rush through the education bill that the Senate passed Tuesday, which is a major priority of the Patrick administration.
In the previous post, I told you about my exchange with an academic at UCLA who studied candidate attractiveness. Well, it turns out that when you mention Massachusetts to people who study candidate attractiveness, their minds turn to one thing: the beautiful man with the perfect hair, Mitt Romney himself.
Although the study did not include gubernatorial candidates, Romney was entered into the database by virtue of his 1994 campaign for Senate.
I recently came upon an academic paper in which three UCLA poli-sci researchers concluded that more competitive election contests produce better-looking candidates than less competitive ones. For example, if the 'out' party has a good chance of beating the incumbent and taking the seat, somehow they come up with a good-looking candidate; if they have little chance of winning, they come up with someone more homely.
I'm two weeks late in producing my every-two-months rankings of the likely 2012 Republican nominees for President. (I would offer as my excuse all the local political races I've had to cover, but most of you already know it's the cyber-slacking!)
Anyway, no new #1, as Tim Pawlenty keeps doing all the right things -- including, next month, the first major New Hampshire visit by a serious '12 contender.
The Michael Capuano campaign confirms for me that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will formally endorse Michael Capuano for US Senate, while she is in town Friday for a talk at Harvard.
Capuano is considered a top Pelosi lieutenant -- he headed her transition team when the Democrats took the majority in 2006 and made her Speaker.
So Lou Dobbs has departed CNN, where his increasingly insane rantings have positioned him for bigger and better things in the "movement conservative marketplace" I'm always talking about. I had predicted early on that he would run a third-party campaign for President in 2008, and he ended up considering it but not taking the plunge.