Q&A #4: Can Lynch Win?

Jack Mitchell asks:

...If Lynch wins the primary, he will have the sharper pivot. How will Lynch split the baby? 

...and "dcsln" asks:

What makes Lynch think he has a shot in a 2-way primary? Does he think it will get crowded enough for a socially conservative Dem to win the primary? 

As you may have heard, Congressman Steve Lynch just essentially leaked out that he's decided to run, in the time since posted my call for Qs this morning.

I have more to say about Lynch vs. Markey in an upcoming column, but here's my quick take. It's hard to see how, in the end, it's very likely that a pro-life candidate gets to 50%+1 in a Massachusetts Democratic primary against a guy with the lion's share of institutional backing and a many-fold spending advantage.

But Lynch is going to outwork Markey as a retail candidate -- he's a terrific, hard-working, disciplined candidate with a smart team who will make sure his time is used wisely.

If -- and I'm just saying IF -- Markey takes a lazy approach to the primary campaign, Lynch is going to implicitly make him look like an elitist, out-of-touch, stuck-in-the-beltway, party favorite expecting to buy your vote. (BTW, it's been four weeks since he said he's running, has Markey made an appearance outside his district yet? Been seen shaking any hands? Anyone?)

That's bad, not just for the primary but then in carrying that public perception into the general election.

And incidentally, if Scott Brown does not run, then depending on who the GOP has you might have a lot of his voters backing Lynch.

And if it is Brown, I'm pretty sure he'd much, much rather face the liberal Markey than Lynch, who is pretty much "Scott without the vote for Mitch McConnell." Which is probably why you've heard almost no Markey-bashing from Brown & the GOP lately; they don't want to help Lynch beat him.