And Once Again It's On

According to reports, President Obama will announce at 1:30pm today his selection of Senator John Kerry as his nominee for Secretary of State.

So, here we go again!

I am genuinely unsure of what's going to happen in the special election -- although I offer my full predictions in a column coming in next week's issue -- but here's my very very quick thumbnail sketch of the terrain as we get started:

Dem side:

No clear frontrunner. It's possible Ted K Jr runs and dominates, but my sense is he's staying in CT.

If not -- and if Guy Cecil doesn't find some other hidden diamond -- I think Markey could win, but my guess is he won't run. I hate to say this, but I don't think he feels that spending five months in the state is worth it.

So we could be looking at Cap, Lynch, Downing, maybe one or two other B- and C-listers & who knows what happens.

GOP side:

Weld is serious. But I can't figure out why he thinks Brown might not run. (Brown just had a high-roller fundraiser in Allston this week, hosted by New Balance's Davis, for his senate committee -- ie, not state committee for guv '14.)

And no, I don't see Weld running as an independent. Much as I would enjoy the spectacle.

General:

Again, assuming that Ted Jr doesn't run & become an unstoppable force.

Otherwise, Brown has a good shot as the easy pick for an election-weary public.

Depending of course on exactly how horribly the national GOP conducts itself over the next six months.