As of noon, a whopping 103,169 ballots had been cast in Boston --over 26% turnout, just five hours into the 13-hour window. We could be in for big numbers.
But more important is where those votes are coming from.
One of the telling things about Scott Brown's special-election victory, in January 2010, was that the votes came disproportionately from the older, whiter parts of the city -- especially when compared with high-turnout elections like the 2006 Deval Patrick gubernatorial and 2008 Barack Obama Presidential, which brought out younger progressives and black voters in particular.
For example, by my calculations, Ward 12 -- Roxbury -- accounted for 3.0% of the city's vote in the 2008 Presidential election, but just 2.4% of the 2010 Senate Special. So far today, it is closer to the '08 figure, at 2.9%. And typically that's a neighborhood expected to vote more later in the day, after work.
On the flip side, Ward 20 -- Roslindale and West Roxbury -- accounted for 8.6% of the city's vote in the '08 election, but 10.4% in the '10 Special. So far today: 8.6%, same as '08.
It's not that Ward 20 isn't coming out. They're coming out big -- but other parts of the city are stepping it up even more.
But you know who's really coming out? Making up an even bigger percentage of the city's vote than in either of those two prior elections?
Wards 1 (East Boston), Ward 4 (South End and Fenway), Ward 11 (Jamaica Plain and Roxbury), Ward 17 (Dorchester), and -- believe it or not -- Wards 21 and 22 (Allston-Brighton). Are students and young progressives actually voting?!?
The big drops so far are in Wards 5 (Back Bay), 6 (South Boston), and 18 (Hyde Park and Mattapan).
Obviously wards are a rough measuring stick, and I'll try to look at some precinct-level comparisons as the day goes on. But for now, here are my calculations for where the votes came from -- the percentage of the total city vote that came from each ward -- for the 2008 Presidential election, the 2010 Special Senate election, and today's election through noon. (And I apologize in advance for any errors.)
Ward 1) '08: 3.9% '10: 3.7% '12: 4.1%
Ward 2) '08: 3.5% '10: 3.9% '12: 3.7%
Ward 3) '08: 5.8% '10: 6.3% '12: 5.8%
Ward 4) '08 4.3% '10: 4.1% '12: 5.4%
Ward 5) '08: 6.5% '10: 6.6% '12: 5.4%
Ward 6) '08: 4.0% '10: '4.5% '12: 3.8%
Ward 7) '08: 3.7% '10: 3.8% '12: 3.6%
Ward 8) '08: 1.9% '10: 1.6% '12: 1.8%
Ward 9) '08: 2.7% '10: 2.3% '12: 2.6%
Ward 10) '08: 3.2% '10: 2.7% '12: 3.2%
Ward 11) '08: 3.7% '10: 3.6% '12: 4.2%
Ward 12) '08: 3.0% '10: 2.4% '12: 2.9%
Ward 13) '08: 3.1% '10: 2.8% '12: 2.7%
Ward 14) '08: 4.5% '10: 3.5% '12: 4.2%
Ward 15) '08: 2.3% '10: 1.9% '12: 2.5%
Ward 16) '08: 4.3% '10: 4.7% '12: 4.3%
Ward 17) '08: 4.3% '10: 4.1% '12: 4.6%
Ward 18) '08: 10.5% '10: 10.5% '12: 9.6%
Ward 19) '08: 5.3% '10: 6.2% '12: 6.0%
Ward 20) '08: 8.6% '10: 10.4% '12: 8.6%
Ward 21) '08: 6.1% '10: 5.3% '12: 6.4%
Ward 22) '08: 4.7% '10: 4.8% '12: 5.1%
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