Republican Women, Update

Published Aug 01 2012, 10:47 AM by David S. Bernstein

Yesterday was the start of the latter portion of the congressional primary season -- states typically hold their primaries either in the spring or fall, so we've had a bit of a break in July. Yesterday Georgia held its primaries, and Texas ran its runoffs; tomorrow Tennessee goes, and then Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington next Tuesday.

So, time for me to update my obsessive tracking of Republican women candidates.

Felicia Harris lost her runoff in Texas; Jessica Puente Bradshaw won a two-woman showdown in the Texas 34th; Maria Seffield got knocked out in Georgia, and Martha Zoller made it to a runoff in Georgia's CD 9.

That last one is a biggie -- it's a new district created by redistricting, and is considered a safe Republican seat. That's exactly the kind of situation where women need to win GOP nominations if the party has any hope of making any improvement in its dismal 10% female caucus membership.

In all, I count 308 districts of 435 total (71%) that have held their primaries, with a total of 29 women nominated by the GOP -- 10 returning incumbents and 19 challengers.

That sounds bad, but the reality is even worse.

Using the brand-spankin'-new Roll Call ratings chart, I found 62 districts in the country where a new Republican appears to have a feasible chance of making it to Washington. That includes any open or Democrat-held seat that isn't considered "safe Democratic." (That excludes Republicans beating incumbent Republicans in primaries, but it doesn't appear that any GOP women will accomplish that this year.)

Of those 62 districts, 5 women have won the GOP nominations. Another 6 have GOP women candidates awaiting their primaries (including Zoller heading to a runoff, mentioned above). The other 51 have already nominated men, or have no women running in the primary.

Below I've broken that down by Roll Call rating, from most to least likely to win in November:

Safe Republican

Total available: 20

Women nominated: 1

Women still running: 3

Likely Republican

Total available: 5

Women nominated: 0

Women still running: 0

Leans Republican

Total available: 5

Women nominated: 1