Q&A #8: Senate 2013?

 "JasonR" asks, via blog and email:

I'm wondering if you could give us your thoughts on the likelihood that Senator Kerry would be appointed to Secretary of State, should President Obama win re-election. That being said, who are the leading candidates to replace him? Ben Downing? Kim Driscoll? The telegenic Tom Conroy im guessing is waiting to run for Treasurer... Setti Warren?

Well, first of all Obama's got to win. And of course Kerry's said he's not interested, and intends to run for re-election to the Senate in 2014. Senators are so cute when they say things like that.

The conventional wisdom is that either Kerry or UN Ambassador Susan Rice gets the slot, but I'm not so sure the list is really that short. 

As for the special election to replace him... I'm going to mostly defer on that for now, but I promise to dive deeper into it soon.

What I will say is that there are a few important variables that we just don't know at this point: who wins the 2012 Senate race; whether the loser turns around and wants Kerry's seat; and how Deval Patrick uses the temporary appointment (created after Ted Kennedy's death).

I could easily see this: Elizabeth Warren acquits herself well in the 2012 campaign but narrowly loses; Kerry is appointed SoS; Patrick appoints Warren temporary Senator; she runs for the permanent seat and waltzes to victory.

And won't Brown and Warren make a cute Massachusetts Senate delegation?

Or would you prefer the same scenario, but with Vicky Kennedy joining the guy who just shunned her in Washington instead?