Q&A #7: Middlesex 3rd

 "John Y." brings us back to local races:

How do see the 3rd Middlesex State Senate race shaping up? Any favorite in the crowded field?

It's a great, great field of candidates isn't it? This is the open seat where Democrat Susan Fargo is retiring. If I had to guess, I think Mara Dolan wins it. She has some good endorsements (including Congressman Capuano) and should benefit from so many men splitting votes. What I'd watch for is whether this becomes a clear two-person race by the end of summer, perhaps between Dolan and Joe Kearns-Goodwin, with others effectively dropping by the wayside. That would give Kearns-Goodwin (or another in that spot) a good chance to win. But I'm not so sure that Buck, Barrett, and Mullin are going to fade away so easily.

On the Republican side, I have a suspicion that Tea Party perrennial candidate Sandi Martinez will beat Greg Howes, and while I've got nothing against Martinez -- and I doubt either could win the general this year -- I would be interested in seeing whether Howes is the kind of solid GOP candidate Massachusetts is so badly lacking.