Q&A #1: State Lege Elex

Sure, everyone is talking about the Presidential race, or Liz vs Scotto, but the cool kids have their eye on the Massachusetts state legislature!

"Guest" asks:

Do you think Comrade Eldridge will be able to successfully recruit a band of idiots to run against his state Senate colleagues, who he deems as "not progressive enough?" 

"BostonBertie" asks:

With nomination papers out next week, what is in store for the freshman class of GOP State Reps who won last year. What has redistricting done to their chances - and how will they fare with their opponents' coattails of Obama and Warren. How many of the 15 seats they won in 2010 will they lose?

On the state senate, it's reasonable to keep an eye on intra-party challenges, because there is so far very little so far to suggest that Republicans will pick off any of the Democrats. (Yes, I see you bold few who are running -- prove me wrong!) However, I am highly skeptical there will be much successful primarying. Open seats will be contested, but I would note that, from what I hear, newly elected state senator Will Brownsberger has rebuffed advances by Eldridge and others to join the progressive resistance.

As for the freshman Republican representatives, I personally think it's likely that a good half-dozen could lose this year. I haven't studied the redistricting effects closely, and I am still learning about the potential Democratic challengers, but a bunch of those new reps won by very slim margins, in a much better turnout scenario than they'll get this year. The infrastructure advantages of the Democrats, plus the turnout edge, is likely to overcome the incumbency advantages in a number of cases -- unless the state Republican Party makes a really impressive, coordinated, smart effort to help them. Be sure and let me know if you spy any evidence of such a miraculous and unprecedented phenomenon.