With rumors of a Suffolk University poll on the way, the Charlie Baker campaign has released another memo on its own magical, unseen internal polling. Now, I don't know where this race really stands, but this memo reeks of a campaign in its death throes.
The 'topline' numbers, for the record, are a 40%-40% tie, with Cahill at 10%, Stein 3%, and 6% undecided.
Two weeks ago -- after Suffolk's last poll put Baker 7 points behind -- Baker claimed to have a 7-point lead: 42%-35%-10%-2%. That means, by Baker's own tracking poll, the race is breaking sharply in Patrick's direction as we near the finish line.
The memo also boasts that Baker enjoys a 48%/37% (+11) favorable/unfavorable rating, while Patrick is underwater at 48/50 (-2). But two weeks ago, they said Baker was 45/30 (+15) and Patrick 45/51 (-6).
Remember, these are the pieces of data they are cherry-picking for release -- so how much worse do you suppose the rest is? For example, two weeks ago they touted that Baker was beating Patrick 52%-23% among independents (most analysts think he needs to win that group by a 2-to-1 ratio). That figure is not included in today's release.
Like I said, I have no idea where the race stands, or who will win. But this latest from the Baker camp makes me think that they think they're losing.