Q&A #8: Deval's Odds

I hope you're enjoying "Ask Me Anything Day" as much as I am!

"CoCoBelle" asks:

Do you think Deval Patrick will be re-elected in November?  What are the chances of Cahill dropping out of the race?

I think Patrick is a slight favorite to win -- maybe a 55% likelihood. The good news for Patrick is that he's still leading in the polls without yet spending any real money (or having any spent on his behalf). The bad news is that most of the Commonwealth doesn't want to re-elect him. I suspect that he'll be able to maneuver to victory.

He's greatly helped, of course, by Charlie Baker's inability to deal a death blow to Tim Cahill. Even though it's most likely that Cahill's support collapses in the final week, for now Cahill's running pretty strong.

As for him dropping out, which would greatly benefit Baker.... I think any slim chance of that went out the window when Baker allowed the RGA to spend $2 million calling Cahill corrupt.