Noon Updates

As of noon, 27,495 people have voted in Boston. Ward 18 (incl. Hyde Park) seems to be catching back up to where it should be -- while Ward 20 (West Roxbury) is dropping off its earlier pace.

Here's an interesting, if perhaps meaningless, statistic: by my count, as of noon 13,880 votes had been cast in precincts where Flaherty beat Yoon in 2007, and 13,588 had been cast in precincts where Yoon beat Flaherty in 2007.

You'll recall my analysis a few weeks ago, which said that those precincts almost all split the same way in the '06 Patrick v. Reilly/Gabrieli prelim, and in the '08 Obama v. Clinton primary. But Patrick and Obama both won Boston by winning those precincts, while Yoon lost to Flaherty in the '07 at-large race despite winning those same precincts. The difference was turnout within those precincts.

Of course, this time around we have to factor in the votes that go to Menino, which are presumably very different in Grove Hall, Southie, Hyde Park, and East Boston. Anyway, stay tuned.

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