Everybody and his brother is pontificating about who is or isn't going to run for the US Senate seat. (See The Fix's version, for example.) The problem: they know nothing, and I know everything. Plus, I make the snarkiest comments. So, here's my take as of this moment, with much backtracking and revisionist updating to come. This is just the Democrats, for the moment:
Martha Coakley. Pulled papers today, as you might have heard. She's had the campaign operation sitting in a garage under a tarp (metaphorically) for months now, ready to go at a moment's notice. It's on. She's in. Grabbing papers the first day is a double-dare to Vicki.
Vicki Kennedy. I make it a 60% likelihood she runs. What --
you thought she ruled it out? You don't know how to parse your
political non-denial denials. This is why you need me around. Show me
where she's said she won't run. It hasn't happened. And that's not by
accident. I am about 90% sure that she is actively considering it.
Whether she pulls the trigger or not, I'm not sure.
At the funeral service, Ted Jr. recalled his father saying: “I do not
mind not being President, I just mind that somebody else is.” I think
Joe doesn't mind not being Senator, but would mind that Vicki is. I
hear he's begun looking seriously at running, because he thinks that
Vicki is looking seriously at running.
Steve Lynch. It's possible he won't run. For example, a meteor might fall on him. Otherwise I'm pretty sure he's in.
Mike Capuano. He and Joe K. are an either/or. If Joe is in, Capuano backs him. If Joe is out, Capuano runs w/ Joe's backing.
Marty Meehan. Unlikely. Jeremy Jacobs is sort of reporting that Meehan won't run, although it's not clear to me what he's actually reporting. Regardless, this was never likely.
Ed Markey. Very unlikely. NewsCenter 5 is reporting that Markey will announce that he is not running. No surprise; the rumor was always just about making sure his name got mentioned. (BTW, Delahunt, Frank, and Tsongas are also not running. And neither is Tim Murray.)
Mark Montigny. He's the most likely state legislator to jump in the race. I'm told he's not ruling it out.
Michael Morrissey. Second most likely state senator to jump in the race.
A Chris Gabrieli type. Massachusetts has got civic-minded, policy-minded people outside the elected-office circuit, loaded with money. I don't see Gabrieli as a candidate for this one (although who knows?), but I've got a couple of other possible names in mind. I'll keep you posted.