Thoughts On The Globe Poll

--I'd look at this Globe poll as the public baseline. To my knowledge, it's consistent with what the Menino, Flaherty, and Yoon campaigns have been looking at internally, as where the electorate stands heading into the campaign. Now we all have it, and can watch to see how the numbers move during the campaign.

--This poll was taken at a favorable moment for Menino: just after he formally announced his candidacy and ran $100,000 worth of ads. Nevertheless, you can't deny the insane popularity numbers for Tommy M.

--The good news for Yoon: his numbers are very similar to Flaherty's at this baseline stage. That's a little surprising to me; I would have thought Yoon was less known, had more negatives, and less of an early base of voters -- but that he'd have more upward room for growth.

--Good news for both Flaherty and Yoon: very impressive favorability numbers, and in particular very low negatives to start; especially considering most people's view of the city council. Also, it seems like Menino might have a bit of a woman problem -- he scores huge favorables with them, but significantly lower vote numbers.

--Is it really true that only 20% of adult Bostonians have lived in the city 10 years or less? (Note: Menino only beats Yoon 47-36 among this group, so it's an important question.)

--Also, in the survey only a third live in a household with someone under age 18. The survey doesn't specifically ask 'do you live with a child who attends a Boston Public School," but it's clearly less than a third, and presumably quite a bit less. So, I suppose the widespread negative assessment of the BPS may be A) not based on direct knowledge, and B) not of great concern.

--The survey, oddly, did not ask about what I consider the single biggest issue being tackled by both the mayor and the council: the catastrophic city budget. Are people concerned about layoffs and service cuts? Do people think Menino has been doing the right thing, demanding wage freezes and announcing layoffs? Or do people agree with Flaherty, that savings could have been found without those measures? Or with McCrae, that the budget deficit is being inflated?

--The survey also did not ask how people would vote in a preliminary-ballot contest, with Menino, Flaherty, Yoon, and McCrae on the ballot, which is the real question on the minds of political geeks like me.


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