A few years ago,the GOP had 228 representatives in the US House. This coming January, if current projections hold up, the party will have 178, including 155 returning and 23 freshmen (mostly replacing retiring Republicans). That's a huge drop.
The losses have not been taken evenly across the party. I've broken down the country into six zones -- you can argue and tinker with my geographical distinctions, but I think the broad ideas show through pretty powerfully.
Here's what I find. Just a few years ago, GOP representation in the US House was fairly consistent with the geographic population: a little under-represented on the West Coast and the Northeast, closely represented in the Core South, and slightly over-represented elsewhere. The Northeast, Upper Industrial, and Upper Plains states sent a lot of relative moderates to Washington, while a high percentage of congressmen coming from other regions -- particularly the West Coast and Southwest -- were extremely conservative.
Representation from the Northeast, Southwest, and Upper Industrial has plummeted precipitously in just a few years. Those three areas have about 42% of the US population, and used to have about 41% of the GOP representatives in Congress; beginning in January, they will account for just 31%.
Meanwhile, the areas with the most conservative representatives are, not coincidentally, also the areas where re-districting has created ultra-safe seats, often by cementing the natural divisions: black/white in the South; coastal/inland on the West Coast; etc. So, the Core South, Border South, and West Coast have barely lost any GOP seats -- and seen their share of the total GOP caucus rise.
I've used the American Conservative Union's congressional lifetime ratings, from 2005 and 2008, to rate the reps as Hard Right (90+ rating), Conservative (80-89) and Moderate (below 80). In the 109th Congress, the total breakdown was 60% Hard Right, 20% Conservative, and 20% Moderate. Of the returning reps in the 111th, the breakdown is 61% Hard Right, 23% Conservative, and 16% Moderate. That does not include the 23 who have no ratings yet -- most of whom appear to be very conservative.
Core South (AL, AR, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN; 15% of US population)
2005: 35 GOP (15%); 31 HR, 3 Cons, 1 Mod
2009: 31 GOP (17%); 19 HR, 6 Cons, 1 Mod, 5 N/A
Border South (FL, KY, MO, OK, TX, VA; 21% of US population)
2005: 55 GOP (24%); 40 HR, 11 Cons, 4 Mod
2009: 53 GOP (30%); 32 HR, 14 Cons, 2 Mod, 5 N/A
Northeast (CT, DE, MA, MD, ME, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT, WV; 21% of US pop.)
2005: 37 GOP (16%); 8 HR, 4 Cons, 25 Mod
2009: 18 GOP (10%); 4 HR, 1 Cons, 10 Mod, 3 N/A
Upper Industrial (IL, IN, MI, OH, WI; 15% of US pop.)
2005: 41 GOP (18%); 17 HR, 14 Cons, 10 Mod
2009: 30 GOP (17%); 13 HR, 7 Cons, 7 Mod, 3 N/A
Upper Plains (IA, ID, KS, MN, MT, ND, NE, SD, WY; 6% of US pop)
2005: 18 GOP (8%); 10 HR, 5 Cons, 3 Mod
2009: 14 GOP (8%); 7 HR, 3 Cons, 1 Mod, 3 N/A
Southwest (AZ, CO, NM, NV, UT; 6% of US pop)
2005: 17 GOP (7%); 13 HR, 3 Cons, 1 Mod
2009: 8 GOP (4%); 6 HR, 0 Cons, 0 Mod, 2 N/A
West Coast (AK, CA, HI, OR, WA; 16% of US pop)
2005: 25 GOP (11%); 17 HR, 5 Cons, 3 Mod
2009: 24 GOP (13%); 13 HR, 5 Cons, 4 Mod, 2 N/A
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