Q&A #1 -- Question 1's chances

 "Jesse" asks:

Intrade -- the political futures market -- has opened a trading market for Question 1. They give it a 33% chance of passing (www.intrade.com/.../c_cd.jsp).

What does the Bernstein futures market trade it at?

I think that's about right, actually. At those odds I would take "not pass." I'd probably place it closer to 20%.

There are enough local stories about the effects of Gov. Patrick's emergency cuts, and what more might be at stake, to tilt a fair number of people away from voting yes, I would guess, and I think it was an uphill battle already.