Bad Day For Niki?

Published Sep 05 2007, 12:46 AM by David S. Bernstein

Here's what I was looking for, to point to a victory by Donoghue over Tsongas today: Relatively high turnout in Lowell, coupled with overall very low turnout.

Why? Donoghue figured to beat Tsongas handily in Lowell, so the more voting there, the merrier for Eileen. Tsongas would need to make up that difference elsewhere. In those other towns, a certain number would come out for their favorites -- ie, for Finegold in the Andover area, for Eldridge in the southern 'burbs -- and Tsongas would do well only with the additional voters over and above those baselines. Fewer casual voters in those towns = fewer Tsongas voters.

Everything I am being told so far suggests that this is precisely how it played out today. Lowell received a solid 12,000 votes, trending very heavily to Donoghue, I am told. Turnout elsewhere was low, with Finegold drawing well in the north, significantly limiting Tsongas's opportunities to gain votes on Donoghue.

More soon....