Q&A #4: State Senate Future

Bundling questions again. "Nate" asks:

Win or lose this time around, who replaces Senate President Murray?

 "James" asks:

We have several Senators getting up there in years (what else is new). Off the top of my head, Jehlen, R. Moore sem to no longer be long for their seats. Thoughts on replacements for these two legislators? 

On the first question, win or lose makes a lot of difference. If Murray loses her re-election bid against Republican Tom Keyes, the senators will need to come up with a new leader PDQ. Most people I ask about this think it would be Southie's Jack Hart, and I tend to agree -- although I don't get the sense that there's a huge contingent eager to have Hart running the place for the next eight years. Bear in mind that there has been a lot of turnover in the senate since Murray took over, and many, if not most, would rather have someone who... well, someone who maybe wasn't quite as high on the Ware Report lists, if you see what I'm saying.

So if Murray wins, then senators are going to start dealing with what I wrote recently -- that Murray's days are numbered. But since they're not dealing with it yet, as far as I can tell, the best I can do is point you to the rankings I offered six months ago, and note that the longer Murray stays, the more opportunity for some of the less veteran folks on that list to move up -- if they actually want to be senate president.

Now, moving on to question two. I'm not so sure either Jehlen or Moore are necessarily going anywhere, but I'd certainly say that Carl Sciortino is sitting there in Jehlen's district ready to pounce.

Moore's is tricky to me; it covers so many little towns, each of which could have local figures capable of running a serious race -- even aside from the house members (among whom Fernandes comes to mind). I imagine it'll be a big Republican pick-up opportunity. Maybe some of my Central Mass. readers can chime in with some likely suspects?