Q&A #8: Menino

 "Venkman" asks:

Will there be an open mayoral race in Boston in 2012? Will there be a race at all?

"Alan B." asks:

You have alluded to the Boston Mayor's Race in 2013 in a few posts, but would you be willing to put in percentages what you think the chances of Mayor Menino running for a sixth term are? And could you provide reasons and or evidence to support the percentage?

And "Tom O'Gara" aka "tomopants" asks via Twitter:

In a question you probably get everytime, does Menino run again? Is there a scenario where he ever calls it quits?

On Twitter I responded that a scenario where Menino calls it quits would involve "alien and/or demon possession." Perhaps that was too curt.

I know that a lot of people really think that Menino has decided this is his last term. The last campaign took a lot out of him, and -- to answer part of Venkman's question -- he will definitely get at least as serious a challenge in 2013, and he'll be four years older.

Personally, I don't buy it. Menino is the mayor and the mayor is Menino; it's who he is. He loves the job. And I think that every time he thinks he doesn't love the job as much any more -- when his health is poor, or when people he liked working with leave -- he finds new reasons to love it.

So if I had to put a number on it (thanks a lot Alan B.), I think it's an 80% likelihood he runs again.

But, as I said above, I have no doubt that he'll get another serious challenge. And he might even lose. But please don't ask me for a percentage on that yet.