As you probably are aware, you can freely drive all around New England without fear of wandering into a Republican congressman's district. As you probably also know, something ranging from a Republican ripple to a tsunami is coming November 2.
And yet....
Both of Maine's congressional seats appear to be staying safely blue, according to recent polls. Vermont was never in question. At least two Connecticut seats (the 4th & 5th, both red prior to 2006) were supposed to be endangered, if not more -- but they're all leaning D, even according to Cook, who just dumped a truckload of Dem incumbents into the Tossup pile. A potential pickup in Rhode Island, where Patrick Kennedy is leaving, has turned into a pretty lopsided race. And in Massachusetts, a bunch of incumbents who should be in trouble look like they're going to be fine, thanks to the weak opposition. (They're all hustling to top 60%, to discourage anyone from running against them next time.) And in the low-hanging fruit of the open 10th District, to replace Bill Delahunt... well, if I understand it correctly, the race seems to be turning on exactly how far away the Republican candidate was standing when his subordinate was putting his hand down a 14-year-old girl's panties.
Meanwhile, the two New Hampshire seats, which I figured were sure to go red, are both remaining stubbornly close.
It does look like Kelly Ayotte will probably pull off the NH Senate race, to replace Judd Gregg -- so the GOP isn't giving that one away. But they're also not going to take away the Connecticut seat, it seems. And, are they even fielding anyone against Leahy in VT?
And then we get to the governor races -- where I have long speculated that Democrats might, just possibly, take all 6 seats for the first time ever (and that's a long ever, like 200 years). While the races are all still good ones, that remote possibility looks less remote all the time. Certainly, it seems likely that Democrats will come away with at least as many of the seats as they go in with (3), and probably more.
Malloy seems to be pulling away in Connecticut; Patrick still leads in every poll of Massachusetts that exists outside of the Baker campaign's imagination; and Lynch should be fine in New Hampshire. Caprio is expected to beat Independent Chafee in Rhode Island, and Maine and Vermont are both tossups.
I'm not saying Dems are going to sweep every race from Stamford to Smyrna. But the GOP will gain what, maybe 2 or 3 House seats if they're lucky, while at best keeping the status quo on Senators and Governors?
Seriously -- if they're not going to gain some ground back this year, when are they ever going to?
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