Thus far, seven states have held their 2010 congressional primaries (IL, IN, NE, NC, OH, TX, & WV), deciding nominees in 97 of the country's 435 districts.
By my count, a total of 25 women ran as Republicans in 21 of those districts, including six incumbents. Those six incumbents, plus four other women, won their party nominations.
Three of those four challengers are running in safe Democratic districts (according to both the Cook Political Report and the Congressional Quarterly ratings): Teri Newman in the Illinois 12th (Dem. inc. Jerry Costello), Renee Ellmers in the North Carolina 2nd (Dem. inc. Bob Etheridge), and Donna Campbell in the Texas 25th (Dem. inc. Lloyd Doggett).
The fourth is Jackie Walorski, running in the Indiana 2nd, who is running against Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly; Cook and CQ both rate the race "Likely Democratic."
So, not a great start for the GOP ladies. Next Tuesday brings another four states' primaries -- Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania -- with 34 more congressional districts at stake.
To my knowledge there are 10 Republican women running in those races, in 10 different districts. Four are in safe Democratic districts. Two more appear to be also-rans in their primaries.
That gives us four worth watching. The best chance is Cecile Bledsoe in Arkansas's 3d district, where John Boozman is leaving to run for US Senate. The winner of the Republican primary is a sure bet to win in November, and Bledsoe, a state senator, is right in the mix with a couple of male candidates.
The Arkansas 2nd, rated a Toss-Up, is a pickup opportunity for the GOP, with Democrat Vic Snyder retiring. Young, African-American Princella Smith is considered an up-and-comer, but appears to have gotten in too late, and raised too little money, to win the primary.
Former Huckabee aide Beth Anne Rankin, running in the Arkansas 4th, and former US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan, running in the Pennsylvania 4th, are both strong candidates in their primaries (but not sure things). Both, however, would be heavy underdogs in November. Buchanan is in the "Likely Democratic" district of incumbent Democrat Jason Altmire. Rankin's district, with Democratic incumbent Mike Ross, is rated "Likely Democratic" by Cook and "Safe Democratic" by CQ.
Looking beyond the House, women have won none of the Republican Senate or Governor primaries in the seven states to date, and barring a shocker will win none on Tuesday.
The following two weeks will bring four small-state primaries -- AL, ID, MS, and NM -- with no strong chances for women Republicans running for the House, although the New Mexico governor's primary is worth watching. Then comes June 8th, with 10 states holding primaries in nearly 100 House districts, plus several women in the GOP mix for Senate and Governor. You can be sure I'll keep you updated!
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