Q&A #3 -- 2010 State Legislature Elections

"Joel" asks:

How many seats (if any) will the Mass GOP pick up in the legislature in 2010?

That is a great question. Quick wild-guess prediction: they gain one in the senate, and five in the house. In other words, not a huge comeback, but at least a step in the right direction.

They should gain a lot more, of course. The state is overflowing with disgust for the politicians under the golden dome -- which I don't think is based much on party, but the fact is the incumbents are all Democrats, so anti-incumbent mood has the same effect. Plus, the governor's race will bring out Republicans, conservatives, independents, and anti-incumbent folks, who might not show up to the polls if there wasn't a high-profile state race to draw them. And finally, Democrats here have been helped enormously in the last three election cycles by very heavy disproportionate Democratic turnout -- for John Kerry in 2004, for Deval Patrick in 2006, and for Barack Obama in 2008. Simply having that wave recede to normal will put a number of Democratic legislators at risk.

The Massachusetts Democrats do have one big thing going for them, however: the Massachusetts Republicans, who are perhaps the most incompetent and dysfunctional collection of losers ever assembled.

Over the next two months, we'll get a good sense of whether they can in fact recruit serious candidates to challenge the more vulnerable Democratic incumbents. From what I have seen and heard so far, I'm skeptical.