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Kos: give it up for Howard Dean


Kos today takes some justifiable pride in the accuracy of his own presidential forecast

 R2K       Actual

Presidential vote:    51-46     52.6-46.1
Congressional vote:    D+9       D+8.38

As much as people complained that R2K was too Obama-friendly, turned out it wasn't Obama friendly enough. It got McCain's total while undercounting Obama's support. Kind of ironic, huh?

Not every ballot has been counted, so the national popular vote percentages may continue to shift. But as of now, here are the pollsters ranked by how far off the mark they ended up:

CNN: 0.5
Ipsos: 0.5
Pew: 0.7
Rasmussen: 0.7
ARG: 1.5
Research 2000: 1.7
ABC: 2.5
IBD: 2.7
Hotline: 3.7
Gallup: 4.5
Zogby: 4.5
Battleground: 5.7
CBS: 5.7
Fox: 5.7

In a separate post, he delights in the reconsideration of the strategic merits of Howard Dean, outgoing chieftain of the DNC.

Even Dean’s one-time opponents give him credit.

"I think it’s partial vindication," said Harold Ickes, a longtime ally of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) who opposed Dean for the DNC chairmanship. "There are special circumstances in each state. In Alaska, who would have predicted the conviction of Sen. [Ted] Stevens [R]?"

"Partial vindication"? I'll take it. Of course, Democrats were helped by Stevens' conviction, but his Democratic opponent Mark Begich was competitive long before the indictments. In fact, Begich was up 47-41 in a poll --last December. In fact, Stevens has led in very few polls this year.

And even in the presidential race, until Palin was added to the ticket, Obama was making it a single digit race in a state Bush won by 25 points in 2004.

But like I said, I'll take it Ickes' tepid admission. Remember, Ickes is this guy:

"We have to remember McCain is not a standard, off-the-shelf Republican," Ickes said, echoing the argument he says he's making to superdelegates, and pointing up Clinton's inarguable strength with Roman Catholics, Hispanics and elderly voters in key November battleground states such as Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. "He will have a lot of appeal for Hispanics. He'll trounce [Obama]."

Ickes was integral in the Clinton campaign's efforts to dismiss Obama victories in places like North Carolina and Georgia by saying they didn't matter because Democrats couldn't win them. So his hostility wasn't directed just at Dean, but at any Democrat who suggested we were more than a coastal and Great Lakes party. Heresy!

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