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  • November 02, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Just a little something to keep in mind as you watch returns tonight. There's a reason that Massachusetts's congressional seats are going to remain all, or mostly, in Democratic hands despite whatever number of seats flip from blue to red across the country.

    The seats that are likely to flip are not random. They are almost all, in order of vulnerability: 1) open seats; 2) first-term incumbents; 3) districts where McCain beat Obama (many of which have grown increasingly conservative over the incumbent's tenure); or 4) two-term incumbents, who have only won in the '06 and '08 Democratic wave elections.

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  • November 02, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Interesting fact: overall turnout numbers were almost exactly the same in the November 2006 statewide election (Deval Patrick) and the January 2010 special US Senate election (Scott Brown). In 2006, 2,243,835 people cast ballots in Massachusetts; in 2010, it was 2,249,026. Turnout percentage was lower, because far more people are registered to vote now, thanks in large part to the huge 2008 registration effort.

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  • November 02, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Through 9:00am, 28,180 people had voted in Boston, according to official numbers obtained by the Phoenix. That's a very strong 7.6% of registered voters, and roughly 5500 more than had voted by 9:00 in the January special US Senate election between Scott Brown and Martha Coakley.

    Of particular interest, turnout appears to be relatively strong in many minority precincts.

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