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  • February 26, 2013
    By David S. Bernstein

    I just got back from Brighton, where Boston city councilor John Connolly -- in a brand-new suit, and remembering to smile -- definitively answered the genital-related question I posed in my recent profile. So the new question is: assuming Tom Menino runs, can Connolly win?

    Probably not.

    But hey, that's a heck of a lot better than "definitely not," so let's look at the two potential pathways to victory that I can envision for him.

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  • February 25, 2013
    By David S. Bernstein

    City councilor John Connolly will announce Tuesday morning that he is running for mayor of Boston, launching a campaign that will “focus on new ideas,” particularly plans to improve the city's public schools.

    Connolly discussed the decision with several reporters Monday in advance of the official announcement.

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  • February 15, 2013
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Iceman" asks:

    Is Menino running for re-election or not? And if so, will anyone challenge him?

    And "Jabari" asks:

    Can you outline the timeline that will come into play for the Mayoral election and who will do what, when?

    My answer to Iceman's questions is best summarized in the first section of my recent profile of Boston City Councilor John Connolly

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  • January 04, 2013
    By David S. Bernstein

    Mayor Tom Menino ended 2012 with roughly $650,000 in his campaign account. (That's from the unofficial twice-monthly bank statement; the official campaign year-end report comes later but should not be substantially different, because --unless I'm mistaken -- he does not have any additional savings accounts at this time.

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  • December 14, 2012
    By David S. Bernstein

    Turning to the local, "Noah" asks via email:

    A) Are you ready to say that Menino won't run again? B) Assuming he doesn't, who do you think will run/win?

    I am certainly NOT ready to say that. I think Menino wants to run again, and perhaps intends to run again; the question is whether he and Angela ultimately feel he is physically up to the challenge of campaigning -- which might depend on whether he gets serious challengers.

    Read More

  • October 19, 2012
    By David S. Bernstein

    Happy Ask Me Anything Day! We start with local politics, and a question from "MichaelK":

    How do you imagine a John Connolly run for mayor would differ from Michael Flaherty's? More importantly, why do you think he's chosen this moment to put himself out there?

    Let's start with the second question first. Connolly wants to differentiate himself on education issues, not just from Tom Menino but from all the non-Meninos who he'll be battling when the time comes to pick Menino's successor.

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  • September 28, 2012
    By David S. Bernstein
    "MicFinesse" asks the timeless and eternal question:

    What are the odds of Menino sitting this next one out? And if he does hang them up, how do you handicap the scramble to follow.

    Currently running 18:1 against. That also happens to be roughly the odds of Menino being too ill or injured to campaign. In other words, everyone believes that if he can run, he will run.

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  • June 29, 2012
    By David S. Bernstein

    Menino Qs, natch! Via email,"Mort" asks:


    1. When do you think Menino announces his endorsement of Warren? 2. Does he run for re-election? If so, who runs against him? If he doesn't who is the mayor in January 2014? Handicap it now! (Not Greg Selkoe!)
    "Dave Lam" asks:

    Who do you predict will run for Mayor of Boston in 2013 and what are your predictions as to who the winner will be?


    Read More

  • May 18, 2012
    By David S. Bernstein

    A couple of Boston questions! "R.O.B." asks:

    After Mayor Menino, who are the most powerful figures in city government?

    This strikes me as one of those mind-bender Zen koans. There is no power in the city of Boston that is not ultimately derived from Mayor Menino, is there?

    I'll say this, though: aside from Menino, there may be nobody with more influence on the city's future than Kairos Shen of the Boston Redevelopment Authority.

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  • April 01, 2012
    By David S. Bernstein

    Things got a little awkward last night, when Mayor Tom Menino spoke at the big Women's Dinner Party, an annual "elegant attire fundraiser" for Fenway Health, attended by "more than 1,200 lesbian, transgender and bisexual women and their friends and supporters."

    According to several attendees, Menino -- a longtime, much-beloved supporter of the cause -- used a good portion of his time to praise the event's co-chair, Terri Murray.

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  • February 03, 2012
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Micah" asks:

    Who will challenge Menino next year?

    Will Dorcena, who ran a solid but losing campaign for city council last year, has declared that he will take on that suicide mission. I don't think John "JC Pennies" Connolly will try it, especially after slipping out of the top at-large spot. I haven't heard much about anyone looking at it, beyond prepping in case Menino doesn't run.

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  • July 01, 2011
    By David S. Bernstein

    Bundling a few questions on the topic -- "Jim-C" asks:

    Predictions: Order of finish in Boston City Council At-Large race in November?

    "BeantownBill" asks:

    What impact will the 2011 Boston Elections have on the 2013 Mayor's Race? And when would you expect candidates to announce their intensions for Boston's Elections in 2013 including Mayor Menino?

    Read More

  • April 28, 2011
    By David S. Bernstein

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print and online now -- I write that all signs point to Boston Mayor Tom Menino running for re-election again in 2013.

    There are a lot of recent signs pointing to this, and a growing sense of it among those in and around City Hall. Of course, it could just as easily be Menino wanting people to believe he's running again, to avoid becoming a lame duck as everyone scrambles for position in what would be a fantastic free-for-all election to succeed him.

    Read More

  • March 18, 2011
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Venkman" asks:

    Will there be an open mayoral race in Boston in 2012? Will there be a race at all?

    "Alan B." asks:

    You have alluded to the Boston Mayor's Race in 2013 in a few posts, but would you be willing to put in percentages what you think the chances of Mayor Menino running for a sixth term are? And could you provide reasons and or evidence to support the percentage?

    Read More

  • March 18, 2011
    By David S. Bernstein

    Ask Me Anything Day rolls on! "RMC Strategies" asks:

    Could you handicap the top 4 folks in the US Senate dem primary (based on assumptions of who may be in) and the top 4 folks who would be NEXT mayor of Boston (outside of Menino)?

    Well, the four who are making noise about running I would put in the following order of likelihood to win the nomination: Setti Warren, Kim Driscoll, Alan Khazei, Bob Massie -- with the caveat that I don't think there's a huge difference in the odds among all four.

    Read More

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