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  • September 08, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    I thought Tim Cahill did very well in last night's debate -- partly for the very reason that the Globe and Herald gave as his detriment, which was that he laid low during the most heated exchanges between Deval Patrick and Charlie Baker. One of Cahill's strategies in this campaign is to take advantage of the classic political formula: Candidate A attacks Candidate B = advantage for Candidate C.

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  • September 07, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    OK, all of us Bay State pundits and analysts got to take it easy since Memorial Day, by responding to every question about the governor's race with the same answer: "Nobody pays attention until Labor Day." Trite, but essentially true -- and indeed the dynamic of the race seems essentially unchanged since Spring. But, now that Labor Day is behind us, and we have a televised debate tonight kicking off the 7-week race to election day, I should really do the obligatory 'where things stand' analysis.

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  • September 03, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    I hope you're enjoying "Ask Me Anything Day" as much as I am!

    "CoCoBelle" asks:

    Do you think Deval Patrick will be re-elected in November? What are the chances of Cahill dropping out of the race?

    I think Patrick is a slight favorite to win -- maybe a 55% likelihood. The good news for Patrick is that he's still leading in the polls without yet spending any real money (or having any spent on his behalf).

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  • September 03, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Via Facebook, "Judy Meredith" asks:

    How will the tax evasion stuff play out among state wide candidates?

    For those unfamiliar with the story, the Boston Globe has reported that Tim Cahill, Tim Murray, and Guy Glodis all failed to pay federal taxes on the interest earned by campaign funds held in CDs.

    I think the story hurts Cahill a little; it's just one more item that Baker can use against him.

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  • August 16, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Way, way, back last November, I blogged that...

    ...there is a realistic, if slim, possibility that Democrats could hold all six New England governorships come January 2011. According to my extensive research -- OK, scrolling through Wikipedia, mostly -- I believe this would be the first time that has happened ever, in the 200+ years of the party (including when it was called the Democratic-Republican Party).

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  • August 16, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    I've been on vacation for the past week, but I'm back and ready to offer my two cents on things swirling around the local political scene.

    --Charlie Baker's campaign put out an optimistic top-page pollster memo, from a two-week-old poll showing the same thing other polls from that time showed: Deval Patrick ahead by about 7 points, with Tim Cahill's support refusing to die.

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  • July 26, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    A new Rasmussen poll for FOX25 has the race for governor essentially unchanged since a month ago. Patrick leads Baker 38% - 32%, compared to 41%-34% in June, while Cahill ticked up from 16% to 17%, and undecided rose from 9% to 12%. (The poll doesn't include Jill Stein.)

    That gibes with what I've heard about recent internal polling by a couple of the campaigns.

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  • May 21, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    A couple of weeks ago I posted about the conundrum the national Republican party is in if, as increasingly seems likely, the strong economic recovery continues through the coming five or six months. Yesterday, that problem loudly manifested itself in Massachusetts, with very good economic growth news, which you can read about in your daily paper of choice.

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  • May 18, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Interesting couple of days on the political scene. Here in Massachusetts, we've got Democratic Governor Deval Patrick denouncing Charlie Baker for negative attack ads run by the Republican Governors Association -- mostly against independent candidate Tim Cahill. Patrick's critics naturally point out that he benefitted from third-party negative attack ads in 2006, which has forced him to parse the difference between the two -- or denounce both (he tried both approaches yesterday).

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  • April 27, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Martin" asks via email, to start off our Ask Me Anything Day:

    True or false: Cahill has no chance to become governor!

    I won't say no chance, but it's a very slim chance.

    His problem is that it's awfully unlikely that Charlie Baker will fade into also-ran status -- that just doesn't happen to a major-party candidate in a competitive race, unless the party ends up with a complete joke of a nominee.

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  • March 24, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Charlie Baker just held a conference-call press conference, in which he criticized Tim Cahill for accepting contributions from pension fund managers who get business from the Treasurer's office -- which was recently reported in the Boston Globe (by Walter Robinson's talented journo students).

    Baker is calling on Cahill to disclose and provide details about the placement agents that the Treasurer's office uses to select pension-fund managers, and to fully disclose all campaign contributors from those agents.

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  • March 05, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Big development in the Massachusetts guv race today, according to the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder: Tim Cahill is hiring big names from the John McCain team, John Weaver, Mark Salter, and Michael Dennehy.

    I'll have more to say later, since right now I don't know exactly what role they'll be playing in the campaign. But it's certainly got my interest.

  • January 13, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I take a look at recent developments in the Massachusetts gubernatorial race. With the special US Senate election campaign about to end, the guv campaign is starting to come out of its long hibernation. Charlie Baker has used the downtime to pile up some dough; Christy Mihos seems to be readying a populist-conservative assault on Baker; and Tim Cahill.

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  • January 06, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I use our annual "look ahead" issue to consider the likelihood of a major political shake-up in Massachusetts politics.

    Political insiders in this state are always speculating about potential domino-effect shake-ups, but, as I discuss in the article, it never seems to actually happen.

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  • December 11, 2009
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Frank" asks:

    What do you think of Cahill's chances in the 2010 Gov's race? Can he position himself as a more-credible alternative to Patrick than Baker/Mihos, or is Massachusetts just not ready for a 3rd party candidate?

    I am highly skeptical that Cahill can win. But for the moment, he is keeping himself very credible, and solid in polls.

    Read More

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