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  • September 07, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    OK, all of us Bay State pundits and analysts got to take it easy since Memorial Day, by responding to every question about the governor's race with the same answer: "Nobody pays attention until Labor Day." Trite, but essentially true -- and indeed the dynamic of the race seems essentially unchanged since Spring. But, now that Labor Day is behind us, and we have a televised debate tonight kicking off the 7-week race to election day, I should really do the obligatory 'where things stand' analysis.

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  • September 03, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    I hope you're enjoying "Ask Me Anything Day" as much as I am!

    "CoCoBelle" asks:

    Do you think Deval Patrick will be re-elected in November? What are the chances of Cahill dropping out of the race?

    I think Patrick is a slight favorite to win -- maybe a 55% likelihood. The good news for Patrick is that he's still leading in the polls without yet spending any real money (or having any spent on his behalf).

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  • August 19, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print and online now -- I have a short take on Monday afternoon's gubernatorial debate. I suggest that Charlie Baker is showing improvement as a candidate, but still has a ways to go to catch up with Deval Patrick and his team.

    Read it here: Baker's Learning Curve

  • August 18, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Oh, Charlie, Charlie, Charlie....

    Scot Lehigh followed up with Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker the other day about his appearance at a Bill Hudak event, figuring that he's now had enough time, since I wrote about it, and since Scot first asked him about it, to have forged a serious response.

    I can't say that his response strikes me as very serious:

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  • August 16, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Way, way, back last November, I blogged that...

    ...there is a realistic, if slim, possibility that Democrats could hold all six New England governorships come January 2011. According to my extensive research -- OK, scrolling through Wikipedia, mostly -- I believe this would be the first time that has happened ever, in the 200+ years of the party (including when it was called the Democratic-Republican Party).

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  • August 05, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Bill Hudak, Republican congressional candidate in John Tierney's district, has not been universally embraced by mainstream Massachusetts Republicans -- in fact, when Hudak announced that Scott Brown had endorsed him, Brown quickly denied it and forced a retraction.

    That cold shoulder is due to some rather disturbing and, some might say, nutty opinions Hudak has expressed, such as once suggesting to journalists that he had documentation proving that Barack Obama was born in Kenya.

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  • July 26, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    A new Rasmussen poll for FOX25 has the race for governor essentially unchanged since a month ago. Patrick leads Baker 38% - 32%, compared to 41%-34% in June, while Cahill ticked up from 16% to 17%, and undecided rose from 9% to 12%. (The poll doesn't include Jill Stein.)

    That gibes with what I've heard about recent internal polling by a couple of the campaigns.

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  • May 21, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    A couple of weeks ago I posted about the conundrum the national Republican party is in if, as increasingly seems likely, the strong economic recovery continues through the coming five or six months. Yesterday, that problem loudly manifested itself in Massachusetts, with very good economic growth news, which you can read about in your daily paper of choice.

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  • April 27, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    The news had been whispered, but now is out: Charlie Baker has replaced campaign manager Lenny Alcivar with Tim O'Brien.

    O'Brien is a veteran (he managed the Kerry Healey campaign), and my take on this move is that the campaign felt Alcivar was a little out of his depth running a multi-million-dollar, statewide campaign.

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  • April 27, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Martin" asks via email, to start off our Ask Me Anything Day:

    True or false: Cahill has no chance to become governor!

    I won't say no chance, but it's a very slim chance.

    His problem is that it's awfully unlikely that Charlie Baker will fade into also-ran status -- that just doesn't happen to a major-party candidate in a competitive race, unless the party ends up with a complete joke of a nominee.

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  • April 10, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Deval Patrick is doing a big re-elect campaign launch this weekend, with events around the state. I checked out the 'launch eve' event for young professionals (read: potential volunteers) at Game On last night. It was a good vibe; a diverse crowd of a couple hundred. Seeing Patrick political director Tito Jackson working the crowd, I was suddenly disappointed that the party wasn't featuring a new Patrick campaign groove, like the one Tito had for his city council campaign ("Vote for Tito Jackson/He's a man of action").

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  • March 24, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Charlie Baker just held a conference-call press conference, in which he criticized Tim Cahill for accepting contributions from pension fund managers who get business from the Treasurer's office -- which was recently reported in the Boston Globe (by Walter Robinson's talented journo students).

    Baker is calling on Cahill to disclose and provide details about the placement agents that the Treasurer's office uses to select pension-fund managers, and to fully disclose all campaign contributors from those agents.

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  • March 17, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I consider how the Big Dig, aka Original Sin of Massachusetts Politics, is once again at issue in this year's state elections.

    Not only do we have Democrats pounding Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker for his alleged complicity in the project's financial shenanigans, but we have two former member of the Turnpike Authority running for statewide office.

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  • March 10, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I take the measure of Governor Deval Patrick as he begins in earnest his re-election campaign.

    The Phoenix was granted an hour-long interview with the governor last week, on policy issues from his first term and looking ahead to a possible second.

    Read More

  • March 05, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Big development in the Massachusetts guv race today, according to the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder: Tim Cahill is hiring big names from the John McCain team, John Weaver, Mark Salter, and Michael Dennehy.

    I'll have more to say later, since right now I don't know exactly what role they'll be playing in the campaign. But it's certainly got my interest.

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