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  • October 14, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    Two years ago, in writing about the possibility of an impending Democratic ascendance, I ranked the 10 Republican-held Senate seat I considered most likely to be won by Democrats in 2008. Today, with three weeks until the election, the top nine of those 10 are indeed possible Democratic pick-ups.

    The Democrats now appear likely to equal or exceed the gains they made two years ago, when they gained six seats to take over a slim majority.

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  • October 11, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    It certainly seems as though the right wing of the blogosphere will be kept quite busy over the next three-and-a-half weeks -- so little time, and so many Obama scandals to investigate!

    Over at National Review Online's blog, The Corner, Mark Hemmingway suspects -- based on, um, nothing -- that Tony Rezko may be telling the feds about nefarious dealings with a bank where Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias once worked.

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  • October 10, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    You know, when you stop and think about it, one of the things you should probably avoid when selecting a vice-presidential running mate is someone who is the subject of an ongoing official ethics investigation.

    I mean, when you put it like that, it does seem kind of obvious, right?

    The bipartisan Legislative Council has released its report, finding that "Governor Sarah Palin abused her power by violating Alaska Statute 39.

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  • October 10, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    In the latest RNC anti-Obama ad, William Daley's black-and-white mug (above the words "political boss") comes right between Tony Rezko and William Ayers, so you know he's pure evil. So why did John McCain help make him Commerce Secretary?

    Politico reminds us that John McCain was chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee in charge of confirming Daley's nomination in 1997.

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  • October 10, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    I am on record from a little over a month ago predicting a 35-state win for Obama. (OK, I initially predicted 40 states, and backtracked a few days later to 35.) I provided some of my analysis behind that prediction, at a time when polls showed a dead-even race. Now, with the polls widening, many are sensing that Obama's victory might -- emphasize might, obviously much can change -- be sizable.

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  • September 05, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    The cross-tabs of a new Economist/YouGov poll provides some insight into the undecideds in the Presidential election. The poll, taken this week, has Obama ahead 42-39 -- but the "not sure" respondents are obviously where the action is.

    First thing to notice is that a much higher percentage of women than men say they are undecided, and they therefore make up two-thirds of the group.

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  • September 05, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    I am stunned at how obstinately McCain declined to use this convention to respond to the overarching accusation made by the previous week's Democratic convention: that he doesn't "get it" about what American families are going through.

    A Democracy Corps survey this week of likely voters in 18 battleground states -- 13 of which went for Bush in '04 -- should scare the pants off of McCain in this regard.

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  • September 04, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    Horrible.

    Awful. Just awful.

    Absolutely dreadful. Could not have won him a single vote, and assuredly moved many wavering voters to Obama.

    My favorite part of the disaster was when he dropped in the dire circumstances of real American families -- and then just moved on and forgot about them, never saying anything about what he would do to help them.

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  • September 04, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    I've been wondering how they would handle telling the McCains' sordid coupling tale -- you know, how he picked her up at a bar when he was married to someone else -- and wouldn't you know it, they went right ahead and told it in those same gauzy tones as they do any other love story in those convention videos. Leaving out the whole wife part, of course.

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  • September 04, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    --United Steelworkers union not so keen on getting mentioned every time Sarah Palin refers to her husband.

    --Party of the incumbent President? What incumbent President?

    --Funny, I haven't heard a lot about what McCain plans to do about these rising jobless numbers.

    --In case you run across the story that Palin triumphed despite a broken teleprompter.

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  • September 04, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    Four years ago, from the Republican National Convention in New York, I observed that the evening devoted to "soft politics" -- sissy stuff like economics and helping the downtrodden -- was jam-packed with speakers of the female and minority type, while the night devoted to securing America from worldwide evildoers was a non-stop manfest.

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  • September 04, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    My overall thoughts:

    --Sarah Palin was good. But she wasn't that good. She didn't change anyone's mind about her qualifications or knowledge of the issues, or let anyone know where she stands on any issues. She had a good night, but I don't think she did anything that will matter two weeks from now.

    --In particular, I thought she blew a chance to show actual empathy with Americans; to be the embodiment answer to Obama's charge that McCain and the Republicans "don't get it."

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  • September 03, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    Now THAT's what I'm talking about!

    That's a convention speech, folks -- maybe the best one of the year. I knew he'd liven things up!

    The earlier speeches -- including Mitt's -- were good enough for the base Republicans. But Rudy fired up the crowd AND swayed the folks at home. Well done sir!

  • September 03, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    I was sorely disappointed in the lack of Obama-bashing yesterday at the RNC, but today we'll get plenty of it in the lead-up to the big Palin acceptance speech.

    Even mild-mannered Mike Huckabee will be lobbing bombs. Check out this advance exerpt:

    Maybe the most dangerous threat of an Obama presidency is that he would continue to give madmen the benefit of the doubt.

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  • September 03, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    I think we can assume that this is not how the McCain team was hoping the rollout would go. The new allegations, discoveries, rumors, and accusations are flying so fast I can no longer process the wheat from the chafe, and can only point you the way and have you sort it out for yourselves.

    --ABC News says Palin is allegedly trying to stall the Troopergate report from coming out before the election; investigation head says that the report is "likely to be damaging to the Governor's administration."

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