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  • September 20, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    I'll be on WGBH-TV's Greater Boston tonight, previewing tomorrow's WGBH gubernatorial debate -- and tomorrow I'll be on WGBH radio doing analysis immediately after the debate. Please tune in, just in case I come up with any pearls of wisdom. Here are a few thoughts for now:

    --On the issue of who gets to participate in debates, I tend to be a lot less worked up about it than some other folks.

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  • September 15, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Tuesday, Kelly Ayotte barely squeaked out a primary victory, keeping hope alive that Republicans will end up with at least as many female US Senators next year as they have now. With Lisa Murkowski out, and the rest of the women nominees iffy at best (Fiorina, Angle, McMahon, and now O'Donnell), an Ayotte loss would have been grim.

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  • September 15, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    There's been a lot of talk this year about the "enthusiasm gap" between Republicans and Democrats, that will potentially help the GOP in November's elections. What I have not heard anyone talk about, even as they try to dissect the long string of Tea Partyish Senate primary victories, is the enthusiasm gap within the GOP itself.

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  • September 15, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Yesterday I told you what I was looking for; so, what did I see?

    --Is he our Guy? Um, no. Guy will not reign, or rein, or rain, over anything in state government next year. Suzanne Bump, with little funding, beat him here, there, and everywhere. Now we'll see whether state Dems rush to support her for the battle with Mary Connaughton for state auditor.

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  • September 14, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Hearing about very low turnout this morning, although I haven't heard from spots like Quincy, the Cape, or Worcester, where hot races might drive a little action. In any event, here are some thoughts on what I'm watching for in today's primaries across the Bay State, in specific races and for larger trends.

    --Is he our Guy? The marquee statewide primary -- if one can say such a thing about an auditor's race -- is Suzanne Bump vs.

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  • September 11, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Let's face facts, my Bay State Republican friends -- including you, Charlie Baker: in the best election cycle you've had in years to topple the Democratic Congressional incumbents, you find yourself three days away from the primaries knowing virtually nothing about your candidates for federal office.

    I'm not talking about their positions on the issues -- which, as I've written before, are problematic enough

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  • September 09, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Everybody loves to mock and deride the practice of post-debate rapid-response campaign spin -- and most of the time it really is the most inane charade you'll ever witness. But high-profile campaigns have to do it, and do it well, because sometimes it really does make a big difference.

    It seems that we've just seen an example of that -- in which the Charlie Baker team ate the Deval Patrick team's lunch.

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  • September 08, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    This morning, on Good Morning America, GOP House Minority Leader John Boehner outlined Congressional Republicans' prescription for the economy. It consisted of tax cuts and lowered spending, with heavy emphasis on the importance of cutting government spending to reduce the budget deficit. Boehner also said that the single biggest impediment to economic growth is "uncertainty facing small businesses" caused by the taxes and health care costs threatened by Democrats in Washington.

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  • September 08, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    The Boston Phoenix has made the following endorsements in upcoming primaries:

    --Steve Grossman for state treasurer;

    --Suzanne Bump for state auditor;

    --Mac D'Alessandro for US Congress;

    --Sonia Chang-Diaz for state senator;

    --Tim Flaherty for state senator;

    --Nick Collins for state representative;

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  • September 08, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    I thought Tim Cahill did very well in last night's debate -- partly for the very reason that the Globe and Herald gave as his detriment, which was that he laid low during the most heated exchanges between Deval Patrick and Charlie Baker. One of Cahill's strategies in this campaign is to take advantage of the classic political formula: Candidate A attacks Candidate B = advantage for Candidate C.

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  • September 07, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    OK, all of us Bay State pundits and analysts got to take it easy since Memorial Day, by responding to every question about the governor's race with the same answer: "Nobody pays attention until Labor Day." Trite, but essentially true -- and indeed the dynamic of the race seems essentially unchanged since Spring. But, now that Labor Day is behind us, and we have a televised debate tonight kicking off the 7-week race to election day, I should really do the obligatory 'where things stand' analysis.

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  • September 03, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    I hope you're enjoying "Ask Me Anything Day" as much as I am!

    "CoCoBelle" asks:

    Do you think Deval Patrick will be re-elected in November? What are the chances of Cahill dropping out of the race?

    I think Patrick is a slight favorite to win -- maybe a 55% likelihood. The good news for Patrick is that he's still leading in the polls without yet spending any real money (or having any spent on his behalf).

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  • September 03, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Michael" asks:

    What is your prediction in the MSE district primary?

    My prediction? PAIN!

    No, I just like saying that. I don't think Sal D. and Tim Flaherty will actually end up in fisticuffs, although I don't think we'd be all that surprised, would we? Flaherty has been working hard on this rematch, right since the end of the first fight (the special election to replace Anthony Galluccio -- who it seems is hanging around the trail with Sal), but I don't think he can pull it off.

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  • September 03, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Boysenberry" asks:

    What are the chances of the sales tax reduction ballot question? It seems really reckless to me, but people are dissatisfied an that may make them more likely to say "what the hell" and vote yes to something like that. Would the legislature even honor it?

    And "Susana" asks from Facebook:

    What's your prediction on the ballot questions? Will any of them pass?

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  • September 03, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    "North Shore Politico" asks:

    Any predictions on the 9th Essex House and Middlesex and Essex Senate primaries?

    Also, for fun, what do you think Bill Hudak's percentage will be in the 6th GOP House primary? Will Charlie Baker and Richard Tisei vote for him on September 14th?

    Boy oh boy, my crystal ball is getting a workout today.

    Read More

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