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  • October 29, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Two weeks ago, after the last round of polls on the Massachusetts Governor race began, I wrote:

    ...pretty much nobody seriously thinks that anybody is ahead by a comfortable margin in the Massachusetts governor's race.

    Second: Every independent poll since Labor Day -- check that, since June -- has shown Deval Patrick leading with margins ranging from 1 percentage point (Globe/UNH) to 7, as in the Suffolk University poll that came out earlier this week.

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  • October 28, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    With rumors of a Suffolk University poll on the way, the Charlie Baker campaign has released another memo on its own magical, unseen internal polling. Now, I don't know where this race really stands, but this memo reeks of a campaign in its death throes.

    The 'topline' numbers, for the record, are a 40%-40% tie, with Cahill at 10%, Stein 3%, and 6% undecided.

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  • October 28, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    OK, let's start here: Charlie Baker is absolutely correct that Deval Patrick has refused to talk seriously about how he'll deal with the looming FY2012 budget gap, likely to be in the range of $2 billion. And Patrick deserves to be called out for that.

    And, if Patrick's going to leave that question unanswered, it's political fair game for Baker to lob speculative grenades to scare voters about what Patrick might do.

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  • October 27, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    In this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I provide a handy guide to election night, with national races worth watching for arranged by poll-closing times.

    The article is here: The couch potato's guide to tracking the national election results.

    I'll be adding additional categories via this blog over the next few days, for you real political nerds.

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  • October 27, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Monday night, during the final televised debate, Governor Deval Patrick used a discussion about unemployment to talk about a "job club" he visited with that meets in a Quincy IHOP. This was not new; it has become a standard part of his campaign rhetoric in the past month -- he even spoke at length about that Quincy group in his speech at the big GOTV rally with President Barack Obama.

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  • October 26, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    This is the new front image at www.charliebaker2010.com. Ummm.... where'd the mole go?

  • October 26, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    A couple of days ago I wrote this about state rep Jeff Perry, who is running for Congress in the Massachusetts 10th District:

    ...what has he ever done that makes him more qualified for office than any Joe Schmoe in the neighborhood with conservative opinions? As best as I can tell, he's had a string of start-and-stop careers, of which I've never heard a single positive story, and then he's been a do-nothing state representative.

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  • October 26, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Every time you think that Massachusetts Republican Party has hit its lowest possible ebb, they surprise you by falling even further.

    This is especially true in the state senate. At the end of the 1990s the GOP caucus was down to 7 (from a high of 16 after the 1990 election), which seemed like surely the bottom -- but no, they dropped to 6 in the 2000 election.

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  • October 25, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    1) Candidates would have to ring in to answer, like on Jeopardy.

    2) The round where candidates question each other would be "Truth or Dare."

    3) Challenge flags.

    4) In one round, candidates would have to respond in a film or theater style called out by the audience.

    5) Vuvuzelas!.

    6) All questions in "speed round" would be about "Real Housewives."

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  • October 24, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    For a long time now, whenever I'm asked who I think will win the Massachusetts Governor's race, I've said the same thing: I think Deval Patrick -- to my surprise -- has a slight advantage, with perhaps a 55% chance of winning.

    Today, with the new Boston Globe/UNH poll, I am -- to my further surprise -- recalbrating that analysis.

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  • October 23, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Some things on my mind with a mere 10 days to the election....

    --Bill Keating's campaign, and supporters, need to be careful not to overplay their hand with the Jeff Perry scandal; they don't want to give an opening for Perry to paint himself as the victim of a concentrated attack by the great Massachusetts liberal political/media machine.

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  • October 22, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    Frank Phillips wrote a perfectly good piece in the Globe the other day, pointing out that as Deval Patrick's campaign steps up its attempts to portray Charlie Baker as an insurance-industry corporate hack, one could legitimately say, in the sandbox of politics, that Baker is rubber and Patrick is glue, and if one's a hack then the other's a bigger one.

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  • October 21, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    So alleged comedian Lenny Clarke, who last I saw ranting as MC at a Charlie Baker rally, got caught the other day joking to a Craig Spadafora fundraiser crowd that Spadafora's Democratic opponent for state senator, state representative and Katherine Clark, is a whore. The joke, I am led to understand, went something like this: "Katherine Clark is my aunt, and a whore.

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  • October 21, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    As you probably are aware, you can freely drive all around New England without fear of wandering into a Republican congressman's district. As you probably also know, something ranging from a Republican ripple to a tsunami is coming November 2.

    And yet....

    Both of Maine's congressional seats appear to be staying safely blue, according to recent polls.

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  • October 20, 2010
    By David S. Bernstein

    It's been the Big Question in the 10th District race to replace Bill Delahunt in Congress: would one of the strip-search victims come forward to talk about it? Today, the question was answered.

    In one sense, this doesn't change what has been clear for a very long time: very bad things were done right in front of Perry's nose; his behavior in response to that appears to have been reprehensible; and he has denied wrongdoing while seeming utterly incapable of telling a straight, consistent story to explain it all.

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