Another Senate Special Q, this one from "Steve" via email:
Curious if you think there could be a Republican Primary if there is a Senate special election?
Depends if you mean serious or token. Remember: Scotto had a primary in the 2010 special, against Jack E. Robinson. I would fully expect almost any Republican, Scotto included, to get a primary.
As for a serious primary, I think it depends on Scotto. If he runs, I doubt that he'll get a serious, decently funded Republican opponent.
If for some reason he doesn't, then who the hell knows what will happen. We could end up with the party in a desperate search to convince somebody to please please please run; we could end up with one of their handful of big names clearing the way early; or we could see a few reasonably viable but not frontrunner-type players entering a real primary.
I think that last option would actually be good for the party -- a primary with one or two state legislators, maybe a Connaughton or Polito, one of the sheriffs or DAs, and a business type. But I think the odds are a little slim.