What are the odds of Menino sitting this next one out? And if he does hang them up, how do you handicap the scramble to follow.
Currently running 18:1 against. That also happens to be roughly the odds of Menino being too ill or injured to campaign. In other words, everyone believes that if he can run, he will run. And win.
One of the potential problems with everybody believing that he's running is that if he doesn't, nobody's ready to go. The prelim is less than a year away.
So, the edge would go to those who have the name, organization, and funding. I still think that Rob Consalvo is the slight favorite, but John Connolly, Michael Flaherty, Andrea Cabral, Dan Conley, Linda Forry, Marty Walsh and others are in the scramble.