Q&A #10: Cahill's Chances

"Frank" asks:

What do you think of Cahill's chances in the 2010 Gov's race? Can he position himself as a more-credible alternative to Patrick than Baker/Mihos, or is Massachusetts just not ready for a 3rd party candidate?

I am highly skeptical that Cahill can win. But for the moment, he is keeping himself very credible, and solid in polls. I would imagine that at some point, Charlie Baker begins trying to bump up his name recognition and public visibility -- which are virtually nil at the moment. (To be fair, Baker's been focusing more on raising money before the end of the calendar year, which will allow him the means to bump up his name-rec and visibility.)

Big question is how much of a fight Christy Mihos puts up in the GOP preliminary. I doubt he can win it, although it's not impossible. But if Mihos spends millions of dollars running effective attack ads, it could badly damage Baker for the general election while forcing him to use campaign funds he can't afford to spend. All of that could help give Cahill a boost as the viable alternative.

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