Yes, it's that time again -- the July second-half numbers are in, and I must overanalyze them because that's just how I am. And aren't you grateful for that!
I'll make some comments below, but first here's the data as I put it together, with apologies for any errors on my part. I'm listing them in order of total fundraising for the two-year cycle (which for most of them dates back only a few months, to when they launched their campaigns). The first number is their total reported July contributions; the second is their total raised for the cycle; the third is the cash on hand as of July 31. Self-funding is included.
John Connolly July: $22,600 Total: $292,603 Cash: ~$85,000
Stephen Murphy July: $4450 Total: $123,545 Cash: $69,724
Felix Arroyo July: $13,666 Total: $69,962 Cash: $44,069
Ayanna Pressley July: $24,793 Total: $69,520 Cash: $31,770
Andrew Kenneally July: $7034 Total: $56,217 Cash: $38,722
Tomas Gonzalez July: $8300 Total: $30,278 Cash: $9489
Tito Jackson July: $18,444 Total: $29,232 Cash: $19,745
Ego Ezedi July: $12,930 Total: $26,458 Cash: $6204
Jean-Claude Sanon July: $4310 Total: $15,884 Cash: $5057
Doug Bennett July: $1834 Total: $15,820 Cash: $8236
Robert Fortes July: $6238 Total: $12,113 Cash: $6984
Hiep Nguyen July: $6969 Total: $10,169 Cash: $4114
Scotland Willis July: $0 Total: $3900 Cash: $2375
Sean Ryan July: $978 Total: $1478 Cash: $1065
Bill Trabucco July $120 Total: $345 Cash: $94
You can see that several distinct tiers have developed: the two incumbents, who have each raised six figures; a 'big 3' of Arroyo, Pressley, and Kenneally, who have raised over $50k but are not close to $100k; another group of three who have each raised roughly 25k-30k; a lower pack roughly between $10k and $15k; and the bottom three, each under $5k.
But you can also see the potential for some shifting, even in the month left before Labor Day -- after which it's a two-week sprint to the prelim on 9/22. Pressley's boffo July, after a $20k June, suggests that she may quickly separate herself from the other challengers. Jackson's big July is a little misleading, because he's the only one whose first big fundraiser was that late; nevertheless, it suggests upward potential. So does Ezedi's July take. Meanwhile, Nguyen and Fortes have finally started pulling in some money, so perhaps that will lead to even bigger things in the coming weeks.
And the bottom line clearly is that none of the challengers will have enough money to buy themselves city-wide name recognition by the prelim -- they're going to have to get it by hustling, organizing, and maybe a little creative thinking. The ones with a little more have the luxury of office space, nicer-looking literature, more signs and bumper stickers, a little remuneration for a couple of staff, and the occasional donuts or pizza for the volunteers.
But I would suggest that in a city-wide race among essentially unknown candidates, the difference between what $60,000 can buy you and what $20,000 can buy you means less than the difference between 60 hard-core volunteers and 20, or between 60 hours of hand-shaking and 20. What do you think?