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  • October 31, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    Several new polls out show good news for Democrats in the final week leading to the election:

    --In North Carolina, a National Journal poll shows Kay Hagan up 43-37 over incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole, Elon U has Hagan ahead 44-37, and Rasmussen puts Kagan ahead 52-46.

    --In Minnesota, Public Policy Polling has Al Franken ahead 45-40 over incumbent Republican Norm Coleman, with Independent candidate Dean Barkley at 14%; University of Minnesota has Franken ahead 41-37-17.

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  • October 29, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    As one of the few people who steadfastly insisted, from start to end of the election cycle, that John McCain would win the Presidential nomination, I feel that I can make some claim to expertise on the topic of the national Republican Party. So, in the new issue of the Boston Phoenix, I look ahead to what that party will look like beyond next week's election.

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  • October 28, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    Maureen Feeney's brief release on the Dianne Wilkerson bombshell calls this a "disappointing day," which seems a bit understated; for those who missed it, here's my report from earlier today on the accusations. I don't have much to add right now, except that she has been released on $50,000 unsecured bond with various conditions, including a prohibition on destroying any documents related to her finances, personal or campaign.

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  • October 24, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    Republican former Massachusetts Governor William Weld is endorsing Barack Obama, the Associated Press reports.

    Weld released a statement calling Obama "the best candidate to move our country forward," and will announce the endorsement publicly later this morning in Salem, New Hampshire.

    Weld has long been an advocate for "big-tent" Republican inclusion, to include supporters of gay rights, abortion rights, and other socially moderate positions.

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  • October 23, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    Conservative blogger Glenn Reynolds was apparently a tad miffed about my recent post mentioning him. I mused that Reynolds's decision to vote for Barr might be a "leading indicator of a decision that a fair number of folks, especially in the South (Barr is Georgian), may be considering as they start to see McCain's defeat as inevitable."

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  • October 23, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    A new poll -- which shows McCain leading Obama by 13 in Arkansas, a poor omen for my 35-state prediction -- shows 55% opposing a ballot initiative aimed at preventing same-sex couples from adopting, or being a foster parent. The initiative's chances are probably not helped by the broad wording, which tries to avoid the appearance of homophobia by prohibiting couples cohabiting outside of a legally valid marriage.



  • October 22, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    I blogged some thoughts after Sarah Palin's Granite State visit last week, but in this week's issue of the Boston Phoenix -- in print tomorrow, online now -- I write an actual column about it. I watched her speak at all three venues on her one-day barnstorm of New Hampshire, and spoke with many people about her, ranging from housewives to high-ranking politicians.

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  • October 22, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    I'm very gratified to be getting questions today! Thanks, and keep them coming!

    "Roseland" asks:

    Would Yoon and Flaherty seriously BOTH run for mayor? Splitting the anti-Menino vote would likely result in certain defeat for them both.

    What are your thoughts on Yoon and Flaherty's relationship, and is there any chance they are working together to drum up interest in the race and contributions, while only one plans to really run a full campaign?

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  • October 22, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Gary" asks:

    Carla Howell says that in the petition gathering, the troops had the best success in the working class and lower middle class neighborhoods, suggesting that there's a lot of support for Question 1 with a large turnout, particularly if that large turnout is from the lower-middle class that typically doesn't vote so much.

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  • October 22, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Jeffrey McNary" asks:

    daley, kennedy, kerry, daschel, biden, hillary etc., all have "guys"..."guys" needing to be "taken care of" should mr. obama win the presidency. are there any obama, "guy's", and if so where would they land in his administration? some, e.g., samantha power have already fallen (stumbled) on their swords.

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  • October 22, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Jeremy" asks:

    Why does Jack Beatty still have a role on On Point with Tom Ashbrook? Even as a progressive liberal listener Beatty only provide agita, playing to the list liberal denominator with arguments that often fall short of any redeeming value.

    I don't listen to On Point as regularly as I'd like, but I think Beatty adds to the show.

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  • October 22, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    "Jesse" asks:

    Intrade -- the political futures market -- has opened a trading market for Question 1. They give it a 33% chance of passing (www.intrade.com/.../c_cd.jsp).

    What does the Bernstein futures market trade it at?

    I think that's about right, actually. At those odds I would take "not pass." I'd probably place it closer to 20%.

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  • October 22, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    I didn't get any questions on Friday, so let's see if you're feeling more inquisitive mid-week. Leave me any questions you'd like in the comments to this post (or email to dbernstein@phx.com) and I will answer in subsequent posts over the course of the day. Local, state, national politics; policy; rumor and gossip; predictions; analysis; something I've written; something someone else has written; anything you want to throw at me. I'm looking forward to it!

  • October 21, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    The new national Pew poll, one of my faves, has Obama ahead by 14 points -- and the data just gets worse for McCain the deeper you go. It's particularly worth noting that people now believe, by a wide margin, that Obama will win; that assumption makes it easier to imagine him as President, which makes it harder to imagine him as a terrorist-coddling Marxist.

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  • October 21, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    The American Planning Association has named its 30 "Great Places in America." One of the "Great Sreets" is Washington Street in the South End. Well deserved -- and as a bonus, the write-up does not use the term "SoWa."

    Downtown Salem, Mass. ranks as one of the Great Neighborhoods. Elsewhere in New England, Commercial Street in Portland gets Great Street status.

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