Paul 4, Giuliani 1

Rudy Giuliani, who led in the South Carolina polls as late as October, finished with a humiliating 2% there, and got just 4% in Nevada -- giving him four sub-5% performances out of five contests. (And probably five out of six -- Wyoming, where he got no delegates, doesn't seem to have released actual vote tallies that I can find anywhere.)

His best showing was 9% in New Hampshire. That's also the only time he beat Ron Paul, who finished with 8%. Giuliani topped Paul there by about 2000 votes.

In fact, Rudy's 4th-place showing in NH is his only finish higher than sixth place. Tallying together Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, we find that Paul has received roughly 75% more votes than Rudy G. -- roughly 105,000 to 60,000.

But hey, it's all about Florida 10 days from now, right?

Going into today, the RealClearPolitics rolling average of polls in Florida had McCain 23%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 18%, Huckabee 17%, Thompson 7%, Paul 5%.

My prediction: Giuliani beats Paul in Florida, but fails to reach double-digits. Anyone disagree?

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