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  • January 09, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein
    I followed Mitt Romney around New Hampshire, during his post-Christmas visit and of course in the days after the Iowa caucus. I write about the U-turn from winning to losing in this week's Phoenix, out tomorrow but online now:

    Old Mitt of the Mountain: How the Romney campaign crumbled and fell in the Granite State primary


  • January 09, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    --My own interpretation of the "Clinton Miracle," for what it's worth, is that Clinton voters were slightly more motivated to get to the polls (and wait in the lines) because their candidate was perceived to be in trouble, and because her passion in the last couple of days made them more certain of their choice. Add to that a certain number of women who changed their vote from Edwards to Hillary because of his asinine comment that her misty eyes should disqualify her from being commander-in-chief.

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  • January 08, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein
    Tales of very high Democratic-ballot voting is driving analysis, that's been building over the past few days, that Independent voters are breaking to Obama at the expense of McCain -- thus helping Romney.

    Don't believe it, as I mentioned in a previous post. (And as a wiser man discusses here.)

    I have found zero evidence of Independent voters in New Hampshire deciding between McCain and Obama, and common sense argues against the existence of such creatures.



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  • January 08, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    I see that Bob Novak and others are sensing a Romney resurgence in the Granite State. I suspect that's a bias of the press being bunched up in the Greater Manchester area. It's absolutely true that around there, most of the "undecided" and "leaning" GOP voters sound like they're really going to be Romney voters in the end. But outside Hillsborough county -- where Republicans care deeply about guns and abortion and armed services, and aren't looking for a "CEO candidate," McCain is going to slaughter Romney.

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  • January 07, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein
    By my estimate, Romney had spent roughly $25 million of his own personal fortune on this campaign as of the end of December, and certainly has pumped a couple million more since. So these results of the new USA Today/Gallup national poll (via The Page), taken after the Iowa caucus, can't be making him happy:

    Huckabee 25


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  • January 07, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein
    --I'm not the first to say this, but the idea that an Obama surge takes independent votes from McCain is mostly a myth. However, the growing belief that Obama will be the nominee is having an impact. It's hurting McCain with some Republican voters, who think it would be disaster to put an old man against the youthful Obama. But others think Obama can only be beaten by an "experience" candidate.

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  • January 07, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    --Good night for McCain, I'd say.

    --There were a few moments, particularly during the immigration debate, when the relatively "party faithful" candidates (McCain, Giuliani, Thompson) seemed to be saying 'Hey, let's not stomp on each other in public, fellas' to Romney and Huckabee. GOP loyalists, and there are still lots of 'em in New Hampshire, not to mention elsewere, may be starting to worry about how the nastiness may effect the party's chances in November.

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  • January 07, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    --Mitt Romney was forced to concede today that he was lying in last night's debate when he claimed to have never suggested, in an advertisement, that John McCain supports amnesty for illegal immigrants. In fact, he has done it more than once. Romney initially said no I never did it, then when shown the evidence said that he had never seen his own TV ads -- the ones that have him saying "I approved this message.

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  • January 06, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    Favorability/unfavorability, net plus/minus, based on answers of ALL New Hampshire primary voters, Rep or Dem (new CNN/WMUR poll):

    Obama: +50

    McCain: +49

    Edwards: +26

    Huckabee: +4

    Clinton: -2

    Giuliani: -8

    Romney: -14

  • January 06, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    Hey John and Barack... are you two in luuuuuuuuuuv???

    Boy oh boy do they want this to become a two-person race between them -- and without that icky girl.

    I thought Edwards did very well -- I think he gave the real lefties reason to think that he'd fight harder for what they believe in than Obama. I think he might have won himself votes in western NH, which is increasingly, a la western Mass, populated with elite liberal upstate NY diaspora.

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  • January 06, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    If we're weeding out participants, why does Fred T. get to play when he's polling at 1% in the state and said he's not participating there and only flew in and out for the debate?

    How much do the other candidates hate Mitt? They all went after him instead of the guy who won Iowa and the guy leading in New Hampshire.

    Romney hurt himself coming and going, by saying 'I like mandates,' yet also refusing to concede that the Mass.

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  • January 05, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    The Concord Monitor's first post-Iowa polling numbers have just been posted: McCain by six over Romney, the rest way back; Obama and Clinton essentially tied, with Edwards hanging around tough at 23%. Zogby and 7News/Suffolk numbers came earlier in the day; CNN has numbers coming at 6:00 [Update: CNN's polling is almost identical to the Monitor's, with McCain by 6 and an Obama/Clinton tie], just before the back-to-back debates from "St.

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  • January 05, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    If --and it's a big if -- Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire on Tuesday, I'm going to tell you now how it happened. (If it happened.)

    It's those ornery Granite Staters. And I mean that lovingly. (As readers of this blog know, I love everybody -- but especially New Hampshirites.)

    One thing they hate up there is outsiders (read: national media who don't know Bedford from Berlin) pontificating about what New Hampshirites are going to do.

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  • January 04, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    What the freaking hell was that holographic-pie-chart-on-a-board thing that Anderson Cooper was walking around with on CNN last night, and why would anybody think that might be more viewer-friendly than a regular screen graphic?

  • January 04, 2008
    By David S. Bernstein

    --Whoever wrote this a couple of weeks ago must be some kinda genius, if I say so myself:

    PREDICTION On the Republican side, Huckabee wins Iowa .... For the Democrats, Iowa goes Obama-Edwards-Clinton

    --Speaking of geniuses... even though I still say Hillary will win the nomination, you've got to hand it to my man Steven Stark for making Obama the favorite from the get-go

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