Romney Leads South Carolina?

Published Oct 30 2007, 04:34 PM by David S. Bernstein

I ignored the September American Research Group poll showing Romney leading in South Carolina, because it just looked too much like an error: nobody jumps from single digits to 26% in a month. Plus, the same poll had Fred Thompson plummeting from the mid-20s to 10% at the same time. Couldn't be.

Well, ARG's October SC poll purports to show the same dynamic: Romney 29%, Giuliani 23%, McCain 13%, Thompson 10%.

A couple of other SC polls -- Rasmussen and Insider Advantage -- in late September/early October showed Romney jumping to 15 and 16 percent. That's significant movement. But 29%? (The ARG polls are also the only ones that have Fred Thompson below 20%.)

So I'm passing the news along about Romney's apparent stunning surge in SC, but I still say it looks fishy to me.