March 2008 - Posts - Stark Ravings

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March 27, 2008

Tote Board Column -- 3/27 -- The General Election Hurdles Facing Obama
By webteam
This week's Tote Board column looks at the massive general election precedents facing Barack Obama.

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Democrats, Obama

March 25, 2008

Guest Blog Pundit Johanna Wald: Tell Hillary the Party is Over
By webteam
The party’s over. Only, apparently, no one is brave enough to tell Hillary Clinton.

Granted, I pay more attention to “momentum” and to trends in public opinion polling than to the delegate math. But I learned something that startled me today. According to Josh Micah Marshall of Talking Points Memo,

“ the press has been largely complicit in maintaining the fiction that the Democratic nomination race is not for all intents and purposes over.

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Clinton, Democrats, Guest Blog Pundits

March 20, 2008

Tote Board Column -- 3/20 -- Race Gets in the Race
By webteam
This week's Tote Board column looks at how the issue of race and affirmative action may be beginning to cripple the Obama campaign.

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Obama, Tote Board Archive

March 19, 2008

Obama's Speech and the Campaign
By webteam
Obama's speech on race in Philadelphia yesterday was wonderful rhetoric and the reaction has been almost universally positive. But will it help his campaign? On that, of course, the jury is out and we won't have any answers until at least the Pennsylvania primary in a month. Remember that Republican pundits tended to love Mitt Romney's speech earlier in the campaign on his faith, too, (though it wasn't nearly as good), and in retrospect, it certainly wasn't the political plus they said it was.

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Democrats, Obama

March 14, 2008

Guest Blog Pundit Tyler Carpenter: Racism and the Democratic Campaign
By webteam
As we noted recently, it's always been our view that blogs belong to the people who read them and post. So, in that spirit, the Tote Board has been seeking anyone interested to file guest blog dispatches. The requirements are that, as always in this space, the blogger attempt to provide good, dispassionate analysis of the race.

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Democrats, Guest Blog Pundits

March 13, 2008

Tote Board Column -- 3/13 -- "Ridge to the Future"
By webteam
This week's Tote Board column looks at why John McCain should pick former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge as his running mate -- if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.

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McCain, Republicans

March 12, 2008

In Mississippi, Obama Holds Serve
By webteam
Sporting analogies are overdone in politics but this year's Democratic campaign -- with its clear demographic contours -- is a bit like a tennis match. Obama last night won a state he was predicted to win. Now, on to Pennsylvania, where it's up to Hillary to hold serve in a state she should carry.

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Clinton, Democrats, Obama

March 10, 2008

Review of Wyoming; Preview of Mississippi -- Obama Strongholds
By webteam
Given the demographics of the Democratic race, by now one can predict with some accuracy the outcome of most contests. If there's a high percentage of African-Americans in the electorate and/or a large percentage of upper-income voters, Barack Obama does well. If there is a high percentage of Latino voters and/or a large percentage of working class voters, Hillary Clinton does well.

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March 07, 2008

Guest Blog Pundit Matthew Sawh: Some Possible Dark Horse Vice-Presidential Choices for Obama
By webteam
Obama's Dark-Horse Veep List:

1. Senator Russ Feingold:
The strongest counterpoint to the McCain aura of reform and cleaning the corporate system up. If Senator Obama is truly serious about challenging the 'Iraq Mindset' he needs to strongly consider Russ towards the top of the list. His selection would generate a serious debate about America's role in the world and its ideals at home.

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Democrats, Guest Blog Pundits, Obama

March 06, 2008

The Huge Problem Facing Barack Obama
By webteam
The huge problem facing Barack Obama is clearly outlined in the latest Pew poll:

A quarter of Democrats (25%) who back Clinton for the nomination say they would favor McCain in a general election test against Obama. The "defection" rate among Obama's supporters if Clinton wins the nomination is far lower; just 10% say they would vote for McCain in November, while 86% say they would back Clinton.

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Democrats, Obama

March 06, 2008

Tote Board Column -- 3/6 -- "Giant Step"
By webteam
This week's column looks at the problems ahead for the Democrats and why Hillary Clinton could well be the stronger general election candidate.

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Clinton, Democrats, Obama

March 05, 2008

Clinton Wins Big on Mini-Super Tuesday Which Means Big Problems for Democats
By webteam
As we anticipated in earlier posts and columns, the Democratic race is now headed to a train wreck, on the heels of Hillary Clinton's strong showings last night. The race now heads to Pennsylvania in late April but, as Fred Barnes noted jokingly last night on Fox, Pennsylvania is more like Ohio than Ohio, so it's uphill for Obama there.

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Clinton, Democrats, Obama

March 04, 2008

The Tote Board Previews Tonight's Contests on WFNX
By webteam
The radio preview of tonight.

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Democrats

March 04, 2008

What's At Stake in Tonight's Primaries
By webteam
What's at stake in tonight's primaries? Actually, it's pretty straightforward. If Obama sweeps Ohio and Texas, it's over. If Clinton sweeps, she'll still trail in delegates but she still has a chance to win the nomination -- though it's not an easy path. If they split, Clinton can continue and cause interparty havoc but something very unusual will have to then occur to give her the nomination.

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Clinton, Democrats, Obama

March 03, 2008

Preview of Mini-Super Tuesday: Don't Assume the Obama-Clinton Race is Over
By webteam

The press has been approaching the upcoming contests in Ohio and Texas (with two other states voting) as the end of the line for the Clinton campaign. That could happen but it's far less likely than the media has been assuming. Sure, if Obama wins Ohio and Texas, it's over. But right now, the polls indicate that this is not a likely occurrence.

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Clinton, Democrats, Obama

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