What's At Stake in Tomorrow's South Carolina Democratic Primary

    What's at stake in tomorrow's South Carolina Democratic primary? A bit less than meets the eye.
    Barack Obama seems likely to win handily. And, yes, if he wins, it will be because of an overwhelming black vote, since black voters comprise about half of the primary voters. It's no surprise. As we wrote a year ago, "there is an understandable pride among voters whenever “one of their own” seeks the nation’s highest office. John F. Kennedy did better among Catholics than any Democrat in recent history; Mitt Romney will do very well among Mormons, and most presidential candidates usually get a huge home-state bounce. Black voters are not going to be an exception to this rule."
    But Obama is likely to gain little momentum from his expected victory because on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton will win the Florida primary handily. True, it's only a "beauty contest:" No delegates are at stake because the Democratic National Committee stripped the state of its delegates for moving its primary into January. And, yes, no candidates have campaigned there because of the DNC's edict, meaning that the press shouldn't even report the results of the Florida race.
    But it will and the average voter who isn't following the race closely won't know the difference. So, Hillary is likely to be the candidate heading into Super Tuesday with more momentum.
    If Obama, by the way, should unexpectedly lose tomorrow (even more unlikely than it seems because John Edwards could do better than expected), his campaign will be in very serious trouble.