McCain Wins SC Narrowly: Huckabee's Momentum is Damaged and So is Giuliani's; Thompson is Finished As an Active Candidate
John McCain has won SC narrowly. It's significant. First, Huckabee needed to win tonight to remain a credible contender. Again, he's shown an inability to do well at all among non-evangelicals, which means that he's unlikely to do well in the populous delegate-rich states and will remain a relatively narrow regional candidate.
Second, Fred Thompson seems likely to be a non-factor from here on out as an active candidate after a weak third tonight; it hardly matters whether he stays in or not since he seems headed for a fifth place finish in Florida on 1/29 if he stays in.
Third, this is not the result Rudy Giuliani was hoping for -- though he still has a chance to do well in Florida in ten days.
What it all means is that McCain is now the front-runner, but needs a victory in Florida on 1/29 to cement that status. If he wins there, he could go on to become the presumptive nominee on Super Tuesday, inheriting much of the support that might have gone to Giuliani. If Giuliani can win Florida on the 29th, he has a chance to reinvigorate his campaign -- though that now seems more unlikely after tonight. If Romney wins Florida, the GOP contest will be a complete muddle heading into Super Tuesday. (Ditto if Huckabee should somehow come back in ten days.)
On to Florida, which will finally decide the course of the nomination.
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