Instant Analysis of Democratic Iowa Caucus Results: Obama On Track for Decisive Victory
Early evening:
Barack Obama is on track to win perhaps a 7 or 8-point victory, with Edwards and Clinton battling it out for second. It will make a slight difference spin-wise if Clinton can climb into second but she now faces a key test in only five days in NH -- lose that and her front-runner status begins to wobble.
John Edwards, sadly, needed a victory tonight and didn't get it. He won't withdraw immediately but it's hard to see a state he can win if he can't win Iowa.
Late update:
With 90% of the vote counted, it looks like Edwards will very narrowly eke out a second-place showing, relegating Clinton to third. She even lost the women's vote to Obama. The press is going to have a field day over the next five days and how Clinton reacts will determine if she weathers the storm. Remember that even Reagan and her husband suffered setbacks on the way to the nomination so this isn't fatal; Clinton still has a lead in the national polls that won't disappear on the strength of one Obama victory. Three losses to Obama in January, on the other hand . . . .
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