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Three Scenarios for a Last-Minute Iowa Democratic Surge

    With 96 hours to go, the Democratic race in Iowa is obviously very tight. What are the factors that could break it open for any of the top three?

    Clinton:  In the final stretch run, last-minute voters decide to go with experience and electability and women who have never been to a caucus before turn out in record numbers.
    Obama: The buzz translates into a massive increase in turnout, bolstered by a record youth vote.
    Edwards: It turns out that many of those waiting to make up their minds were just waiting to see if Edwards was still viable at the end. Now that he is, they flock to him, much as they did last time. Also, the constant sniping between Clinton and Obama over the last month helps sway Iowa undecideds to go with the third alternative.

    Take your pick. For what it's worth -- and this is not a prediction -- the hunch here is that the Edwards scenario is the likeliest of the three.

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