December 2007 - Posts - Stark Ravings

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December 31, 2007

What's Happening With Obama in Iowa?
By webteam
Anyone watching Barack Obama on the stump in Iowa yesterday (in this case, courtesy of C-Span) must have been struck by the utter listlessness of the candidate, followed by a crowd that listened politely but did little else. Joe Klein in Time had the same impression -- Obama was just mailing it in.
Maybe Obama was just having an off weekend, though he's not picking the most opportune time to have it.

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Democrats, Obama

December 31, 2007

Why Edwards Knows How to Close
By webteam
Why John Edwards knows how to close a campaign -- the Tote Board's take.

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Democrats, Edwards

December 30, 2007

Two Scenarios For A Last-Minute Iowa GOP Surge
By webteam

With Thursday looming, here's what could happen in the GOP race to tilt things one way or the other:

Romney: The constant negative attacks keep working and with a superior organization, Romney grinds out a victory, with McCain and Thompson cutting into Huckabee's potential totals.
Huckabee: Many of Huckabee's supporters are evangelical Christians and first-time voters -- under the radar so to speak -- and so they weren't picked up as much by pollsters nor were they swayed by the negative attacks all that much either.

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Huckabee, Republicans, Romney

December 30, 2007

Three Scenarios for a Last-Minute Iowa Democratic Surge
By webteam
With 96 hours to go, the Democratic race in Iowa is obviously very tight. What are the factors that could break it open for any of the top three?

Clinton: In the final stretch run, last-minute voters decide to go with experience and electability and women who have never been to a caucus before turn out in record numbers.
Obama: The buzz translates into a massive increase in turnout, bolstered by a record youth vote.

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Clinton, Democrats, Edwards

December 30, 2007

According to a New MSNBC Iowa Poll, Second Choicers Poised to Break for Edwards
By webteam

A new MSNBC Iowa poll, if accurate, contains a new development. In the Democratic race, the three top contenders are virtually even, according to the poll. But, when the second choices of Kucinich, Biden, Dodd, and Richardson voters are factored in -- and these are the candidates unlikely to reach the 15% threshhold virtually anywhere -- Edwards jumps to a ten-point lead -- 36% to 26% for the other two.

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Democrats, Edwards

December 30, 2007

The Polls In Iowa Show the Slightest of Upticks for Clinton and Edwards; Romney Back to Even With Huckabee
By webteam
As we've warned before, Iowa polls are notoriously unreliable, for a number of reasons. But it is worth paying attention to the general trend, if one factors in the results of all the polls and looks for a tendency. And, in both races, with five days to go, there appears to be something of a mini-trend.
Compared to the results, say, two weeks ago for the Democrats, there appears to have been a slight uptick for Hillary Clinton, translating into a very small lead in several polls -- though not all.

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Democrats, Republicans

December 28, 2007

How the Bhutto Assassination Could Affect the Race
By webteam
How the Bhutto assassination could affect the race -- the Tote Board's take.

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Democrats, Republicans

December 27, 2007

Tote Board Column -- 12/27 -- "McCain Still Able"
By webteam
This week's Tote Board column looks at how electable each of the major candidates is and concludes that if John McCain can win the GOP nomination, he's the best bet to be the next president.

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Democrats, McCain, Republicans

December 26, 2007

Boxing Day Special: In the Spirit of the Season, Some Slogans for Fred
By webteam
It’s apparent what the problem with the Fred Thompson campaign is: He hasn’t been able to come up with a slogan that encapsulates his unique approach to running for president. Clearly what he needs to do is take some traditional American slogans and adapt them. Here are five suggestions:

-- It’s morning in America – but I’m not getting up until this afternoon.

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Republicans, Thompson

December 23, 2007

Concord Monitor: Romney Must Be Stopped
By webteam

As we've been writing all along, endorsements -- particulary newspaper ones -- scarcely matter any longer. But we're stumped to find many cases in modern history where a mainstream paper went after a mainstream candidate (who wasn't someone like, say, George Wallace) the way the Concord Monitor has gone after Mitt Romney this morning.

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Republicans, Romney

December 23, 2007

Further Explanation of the Tote Board Odds: Why Hillary Is the Favorite but Obama or Edwards Could Still Win
By webteam
We’ve received some mail questioning our odds given the apparent surge by Barack Obama. So, here’s a brief explanation.
First, odds are not predictions; they’re probabilities.
Second, it’s our view that Hillary is still the probable nominee. That’s because for Obama to truly get his campaign launched, it’s generally agreed that he has to win two of the first three contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

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Democrats, Tote Board Archive

December 21, 2007

Mike Huckabee: They Love Him for the Enemies He's Made
By webteam
Mike Huckabee: They love him for the enemies he's made. The Tote Board's take.

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Huckabee, Republicans

December 20, 2007

Tancredo Withdraws and Endorses Romney: Who Cares?
By webteam

Tom Tancredo has withdrawn from the GOP race and endorsed Mitt Romney.
Will it make a difference? Well, Tancredo had virtually no support. So it's hard to see exactly what he thinks he's transferring to Romney.
Endorsements in presidential politics rarely matter. This one is certainly not going to be the exception to the rule.

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Republicans, Romney

December 20, 2007

McCain Is On the Move
By webteam
As we related earlier, we're not going to react to every waver in the polls -- there will be many in the days ahead. But when the trend is significant, we'll note it, and there are unmistakable signs that John McCain is having a signficant surge in both Iowa and New Hampshire that could change the shape of the race.
The big losers, obviously, are Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani.

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McCain, Republicans

December 20, 2007

Clinton and the Press
By webteam
Clinton and the press -- the Tote Board's take.

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Clinton, Democrats

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