Fighting the Last War at the Iowa Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner

    Tonight is the traditional Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner in Iowa and all the major Democratic candidates will speak. It's getting unbelievable hype -- in part because everything gets unbelievable hype this year; in part because this is the place where John Kerry supposedly started his Iowa turnaround four years ago, and because, let's face it, it's really easy for reporters to cover.
    Yes, there will be some nice speeches. But this campaign has been going on for a long time and still has almost two months to go. Barring the completely unexpected, tonight won't make a difference -- even though many pundits will pretend it does.