Some Social Conservatives Say They'll Go Third Party If Giuliani Is Nominated

    The Politico is reporting that some prominent social conservatives have raised the spectre of a third party movement if Rudy Giuliani is nominated.
    This is a significant threat to his general election chances -- and indeed to the party's as a whole -- since Giuliani is currently the only Republican candidate running close to the Democratic contenders.
    It's an interesting threat: What these leaders are saying is that they'd rather lose with someone they like than win with someone they don't. It's that kind of attitude which led the Democrats to lose so many elections in recent history and led the GOP to Barry Goldwater in 1964, when he lost in one of the biggest landslides in history.
    The key to the theat is whether the large majority of these third-party voters would come from the South -- where Giuliani can probably afford to lose a few percentage points and still win those states -- or places like Missouri, New Jersey, and Florida -- where even a percentage point or two could swing a close election.
    What conservative voters may have to decide a year from now is whether they're willing to swallow their reservations about Giuliani or take their bete-noir, Hillary Clinton. At that point, Giuliani may not look as bad to these leaders as he does now -- especially if he picks a vice-presidential candidate to their liking.