September 2007 - Posts - Stark Ravings

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September 29, 2007

Gingrich Says He Won't Be A Candidate
By webteam
The Politico is reporting that Newt Gingrich, after all, will not seek the GOP nomination.
We're not completely surprised, though he was making noises about running. He was never going to come close to the $30 million fundraising goal he had recently set for himself. And, he had virtually no chance of winning either the nomination or the general.

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Gingrich, Republicans

September 29, 2007

Biden to Put All His Eggs in Iowa Basket
By webteam
The Washington Post's able Chris Cillizza is reporting that Joe Biden has decided to put virtually all his campaign resources into Iowa in the hopes of springing an upset there.
It's a move born out of necessity but it's a good one. If Biden can't place in the Top 3 there, he's finished, and even third probably won't be enough.

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Biden, Democrats

September 28, 2007

The Edwards Decision To Go the Public Funding Route is Not a Good Sign for His Campaign
By webteam
John Edwards announced yesterday that his campaign will go the public funding route, following an identical step by John McCain earlier in the summer. It's not a good sign. Edwards is attempting to portray this as a principled stand against the flood of money in politics. But that explanation is unlikely to fly because it raises the question why it took Edwards this long in the campaign to realize the evils of big money.

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Democrats, Edwards

September 27, 2007

Tote Board Odds Now List Hillary Clinton as Democratic Favorite for Nomination
By webteam
For the first time since the column began last February, Hillary Clinton is now listed as the favorite for the Democratic nomination. To be sure, we still rate Barack Obama's chances much more highly than virtually any other source out there. He continues to possess great advantages -- not the least of which is a ton of cash that he'll be able to spend freely in the coming months.

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Clinton, Democrats, Obama

September 27, 2007

Tote Board Column -- 9/27 -- The X Factors
By webteam
This week's Tote Board column looks at how the behavior of Independents and voters whose first choice has dropped out of the race could confound the expectations of pollsters when voting actually begins this winter.

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Democrats, Giuliani, Obama

September 27, 2007

Instant Post-Debate Wrapup
By webteam
In one sense, this debate was like all the others. Nothing happened that was memorable, which in the long run, helps Hillary Clinton, who continues to put in competent, if passionless, mistake-free performances. The star performer of the evening was Tim Russert, whose probing “Meet the Press” type questions elicited more information and disputes between the candidates than any of the previous efforts by other hosts.

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Democrats

September 26, 2007

Previewing Tonight's Democratic Debate
By webteam
Here is the Tote Board's preview of tonight's key Democratic debate. An analysis will be posted here shortly after the event concludes.

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Democrats

September 25, 2007

More Evidence That Obama May Be Stumbling
By webteam
Two more articles from the Chicago papers indicate that Obama may be having his problems. The Trib details how Obama is having trouble connecting with working-class voters -- a trend we predicted a while back. Then the Sun-Times has a dispatch on how the Obama campaign is counting on a hidden youth vote.
This is a bad sign.

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Democrats, Obama

September 25, 2007

The Travails Of Newt, Part 76 (or something like that)
By webteam
Newt Gingrich is now saying he's out there trying to raise the $30 million he needs to run. That puts him yet another step closer to running. Look in a few weeks for that figure to be revised downward.

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Gingrich, Republicans

September 24, 2007

Good News for Edwards and Obama: President Bush Looks at Clinton Campaign and Sees "Mission Accomplished"
By webteam
President Bush, in a book to be published later this week, ventures his opinion that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. So it goes. (He also thinks she'll lose in the fall but doesn't he have to kind of say that?)

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Clinton, Democrats

September 24, 2007

Big Weekend for Clinton, But . . . .
By webteam
Hillary did the Sunday talk shows to rave reviews. The Times almost conceded her the nomination in its lead piece Sunday. Senator Bayh of Indiana will endorse her today. It's all going swimmingly, but . . . .
There is a terrific piece in the Washington Post Sunday, dealing with voters in swing congressional districts, based on a Celinda Lake poll.

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Clinton, Democrats, Obama

September 24, 2007

The Survey USA Polls Revisited: Why is Hillary Not Running More Strongly Against the GOP?
By webteam
Going back to the polls we discussed this weekend, the question arises why Hillary Clinton is running even or behind Rudy Giuliani in key swing states such as Missouri and Ohio, when the Democrats seem to be going so strong at present. A friend who looked at the poll internals in Missouri suggests a reason. In the St. Louis metro area, for example, Hillary and Giuliani are running even.

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Clinton, Democrats

September 23, 2007

Latest Missouri Matchups Confirm Ohio Poll: The Republicans Are Running Surprisingly Well in Swing States and Edwards Looks Like Most Electable Democrat
By webteam
Survey USA has followed up its Ohio poll with one in Missouri and it basically confirms the findings there -- with one twist. In this swing state, Rudy Giuliani is actually leading Hillary Clinton 48-45%, while Fred Thompson loses narrowly to Clinton by the identical 48-45%.
For the record, Barack Obama, in contrast, beats Giuliani by three points and John Edwards beats him by five.

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Clinton, Democrats, Edwards

September 22, 2007

In Latest Ohio Poll Matchups, Republicans Do Surprisingly Well
By webteam
It's not much of an exaggeration to say that as swing state Ohio goes, so goes the nation. So it's a bit of a surprise that as unpopular as the current incumbent appears to be, a new Survey USA poll shows Rudy Giuliani leading Hillary Clinton by a point (48-47) in Ohio and Fred Thompson losing to her by a point (47-48). It's also significant that John Edwards also loses to Giuliani by a point but clobbers Fred Thompson by nine points (43-52) -- which could aid his electability argument.

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Clinton, Democrats, Edwards

September 21, 2007

Yepsen Says Obama Was the Big Loser at Last Night's Debate for Not Showing -- But We Strongly Disagree
By webteam
Esteemed Iowa pundit David Yepsen takes Barack Obama to task for failing to appear at last night's Iowa debate, calling him the big loser. We couldn't disagree more: Obama was being overexposed by the plethora of debates. He'll have plenty more chances to appear at these forums, beginning next week in New Hampshire. And, because he wasn't there, the press, by and large, ignored the event.

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Democrats, Obama

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