On Newspapers' self-fulfilling death wish

It's not hard to find Rhode Islanders unhappy and ornery about the incredible shrinking ProJo. John Hazen White Jr. used this as his outrage last week on A Lively Experiment, and just in casual conversation, a number of politicos and others have mentioned their chagrin about the Journal's diminished news content and its fewer staffers.

People turn to the ProJo for local news. But instead of focusing on that, the paper is going in a different direction.

You don't have to be a genius to see a vicious cycle at work.

As Ken Doctor observes:

The double-digit [circulation] declines -- the Atlanta Journal Constitution at 13.6% daily, the Dallas Morning News at 9.2% daily and the critical-listed Newark Star-Ledger down 10.4% daily -- shouldn't be a surprise, but they are surprising in their magnitude.

Recall that newspaper CEOs have been saying for a couple of years now that circ declines should plateau soon, as they've pruned out-state and other costlier, and less-attractive-to-advertiser circulation. The story they've told themselves, and us, is that the print business was stabilizing. 

 

In fact, the circulation decline is going the other way -- deepening. Down 4.6% daily and 4.8% Sunday, these are new lows and a trend further downward from the largely 2.5-3.5% declines we've seen over the last four years. 

 

Let's connect the dots.

 

One big reason the numbers are declining is the product itself. In the last year, we've seen unprecedented cuts in the product -- and the customers are noticing. It looks like the amount of newsprint is down about 10-15%; some in stories, some in ads. Trusted bylines have disappeared overnight. Readers notice, and talk to their friends, and they're saying: it's not the newspaper it used to be. When the subscription notices come, they're a little less likely to be acted upon. 

 

In a sense, newspapers have been slaughtering the cash cows -- print revenues still drive more than 85% of the business -- a bit too fast.